Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 12th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. Stock market participants finally got their chance to react to the disappointing employment data for March (the report was released on Good Friday).

However, the negative response was brief, as the market opened lower on Monday and then quickly turned up. The markets seemed to be looking for direction through the week, but failed to find much in the early earnings reports.

The FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 policy meeting showed that “several” participants were leaning toward an initial rate hike in June. However, others felt that the economic data would support an initial move later this year or in 2016. Note that all senior Fed officials (the five governors and 12 district bank presidents) are “participants” at policy meetings.

However, only 10 officials get to vote (the governors and five of the district bank presidents). Fed Governor Jerome Powell said that conditions are likely to warrant an initial hike later this year, but noted “the precise timing of liftoff is less important than the path of subsequent additional rate increases.”

He said that if the economic data come in as anticipated, “it will be appropriate for a time to increase rates fairly gradually.”

Next week, the mid-month data reports are expected to play a key role in shaping near-term expectations for the economy. While figures for January and February have been generally disappointing, it’s widely expected that growth will pick up in the data for March and April.

However, that may be skewed more toward April. Retail sales, the highlight of the week, are expected to have picked up nicely in March. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook should be a bit brighter (a slightly more optimistic outlook for Europe, but with a downward revision to the U.S.). We may hear the G-20 central bankers and finance ministers express concerns about the strong dollar later in the week.

Indices

Important Disclosures

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The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 9th, 2015.

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