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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 10th, 2016

By | May 10, 2016 | Email This Post Print This Post
 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with moderately strong economic growth in the near term. Motor vehicle sales rebounded in April, from what appears to have been an Easter-related decline in March.

The ISM surveys split; manufacturing a bit softer, non-manufacturing a bit stronger. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 160,000 in the initial estimate for April, below the median forecast (+200,000), but not horrible (note that the economy added 1.057 million jobs before seasonal adjustment).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, but labor force participation and the employment/population ratio both declined (don’t read too much into that, there’s a fair amount of noise in these figures and the trends are higher).

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, up 2.5% from a year ago, still relatively lackluster, but the fear is that tighter job market conditions will lead to further upward pressure on wages.

As usual, financial market participants paid little attention to the productivity numbers. These data can be a bit squirrelly, but the underlying trends are worrisome. Specifically, output per hour fell at a 1.0% annual rate in the preliminary estimate for 1Q16, up 0.6% y/y (productivity has risen at a 0.5% annual rate over the last five years).

Productivity growth is the key to an improving standard of living, the financing of Social Security and Medicare, the inflation outlook, and corporate profits. Unit Labor Costs (the key measure of inflation pressure from the job market) rose at a 4.1% annual rate in 1Q16 (+2.3% y/y). If firms cannot pass higher Unit Labor Costs along, they will eat into corporate profits.

Next week, the economic calendar thins out, with the important figures arriving on Friday. Retail sales should post a strong gain in April, boosted by the rebound in vehicle sales and higher gasoline prices.

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17660.71 17830.76 1.35%
NASDAQ 4717.09 4805.29 -5.80%
S&P 500 2050.63 2075.81 0.33%
MSCI EAFE 1641.61 1698.26 -4.35%
Russell 2000 1107.95 1140.40 -2.46%

 

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.37 0.08
30-year mortgage 3.63 3.80

 

Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.449 1.524
Dollars per Euro 1.141 1.135
Japanese Yen per Dollar 107.26 119.46
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.285 1.204
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.893 15.361

 

Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 44.32 60.93
Gold 1272.30 1190.30

 

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.73 0.84
10-year treasury 1.74 1.83
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.46 2.71

 

Treasury Yield Curve – 05/06/2016

As of close of business 05/05/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 05/06/2016
Economic Calendar

May 10 Small Business Optimism (April)
May 12 Jobless Claims (week ending May 7)
Import Prices (April)
May 13 Producer Price Index (April)
Retail Sales (April)
May 17 Consumer Price Index (April)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (April)
Industrial Production (April)
May 18 FOMC Minutes (April 26-27)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business May 5th, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

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