Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 28th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

The economic data were generally on the weak side of expectations. The advance estimate of 1Q13 GDP growth came in weaker than anticipated (at a 2.5% annual rate, vs. expectations of +3.0% or +3.1%). Consumer spending was stronger than anticipated at the start of the quarter, while business fixed investment rose more slowly than expected. Inventories rose at a faster pace, adding a full percentage point to overall growth. Government (mostly defense) remained a drag on overall growth. The PCE Price Index continued to trend far below the Fed’s 2% target (suggesting little need for the Fed to taper its rate of asset purchases).

Earnings reports were mixed, but generally with some caution in the forward outlooks. Relatively slow global growth isn’t going to help and fiscal policy has dampened the outlook domestically.

Next week, the economic calendar is packed. The ISM Manufacturing Index has market-moving potential, but investors will be more interested in the April Employment Report. Quarterly personal income and spending figures, included in the GDP report, imply a moderately strong gain in income in March, but spending is expected to be weak.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply in March, but some of that could have been due to the weather. The weather was also a likely factor restraining nonfarm payrolls in March. Job growth is expected to have picked up in April. Note that the economy typically adds more than 900,000 jobs in March prior to seasonal adjustment.

The unemployment rate has continued to trend lower, but that’s largely because individuals have left the labor force – little change is anticipated for April. The Fed policy meeting is expected to be a non-event – officials will discuss the factors that would lead to a reduction in the rate of asset purchases, but should refrain from taking action anytime soon.

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	14700.80	14537.14	12.18%
NASDAQ	3289.99	3166.36	8.96%
S&P 500	1585.16	1541.61	11.15%
MSCI EAFE	1728.51	1667.67	7.76%
Russell 2000	940.28	901.51	10.71%

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1-year ago
Prime Rate	3.25	3.25
Fed Funds	0.14	0.14
30-year mortgage	3.41	3.88

Currencies

	Last	1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.543	1.615
Dollars per Euro	1.301	1.320
Japanese Yen per Dollar	99.370	81.480
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.020	0.984
Mexican Peso per Dollar	12.126	13.159

Commodities

	Last	1-year ago
Crude Oil	93.29	103.70
Gold	1457.60	1633.13

Bond Rates

	Last	1-month ago
2-year treasury	0.22	0.24
10-year treasury	1.67	1.85
10-year municipal (TEY)	2.97	3.26

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/26/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/26/2013

Economic Calendar

April 29	—	Personal Income and Spending (March) Pending Home Sales Index (March)
April 30	—	Employment Cost Index (1Q13) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February) Chicago PM Index (April) Consumer Confidence (April)
May 1	—	ADP Payroll Estimate (April) ISM Manufacturing Index (April) FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing) Motor Vehicle Sales (April)
May 2	—	Jobless Claims (week ending April 27) Trade Balance (March)
May 3	—	Employment Report (April) Factory Orders (March) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April)
May 13	—	Retail Sales (April)
May 27	—	Memorial Day Holiday – markets closed