Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 15th, 2013
September 15, 2013
Clarksville, TN – With a thin economic calendar, Syria remained a key concern for the markets. However, prospects for a U.S. strike diminished, which helped bolster equity market sentiment. The bond market is looking ahead to the Fed policy meeting. In the bond market, expectations on tapering have solidified somewhat, with a moderate majority seeing a small initial reduction in the pace of asset purchases.
Retail sales for August disappointed (relative to expectations), but figures for June and July were revised a bit higher. Jobless claims were distorted due to upgrades in state computer systems, but the trend had been lower in August. Hiring intentions improved. Consumer sentiment softened.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 8th, 2013
September 8, 2013
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but mostly on the strong side of expectations. The ISM’s two monthly surveys surprised to the upside. Motor vehicle sales advanced
However, the August Employment Report disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 169,000 (vs. a median forecast of +180,000 and expectations of an upside surprise). Figures for June and July were revised a net 74,000 lower (July went from +162,000 to +104,000).
Manufacturing rose by 6,000. Construction was flat. Retail added 44,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%, but that was due to lower labor force participation (the lowest since May 1978).
Frazier Allen
Investors looking for answers from the Fed, Government
September 4, 2013
Clarksville, TN – August saw all three of the major U.S. stock market indexes fall into negative territory, as investors become more concerned about the possibility of rising rates and potential military action in Syria.
Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, also took a hit in August as their economies weakened and their currencies fell against the dollar.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 1st, 2013
September 1, 2013
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were consistent with a slowing in the rate of overall growth in July.
The estimate of second quarter growth was revised higher (to a 2.5% annual rate, vs. +1.7% in the advance estimate), but that was almost entirely due to a smaller-than-expected trade deficit (the estimate of consumer spending growth was the same and the estimate of business fixed investment was only slightly different).
Personal income and spending figures showed a poor start for the consumer in 3Q13. Durable goods orders tanked in July, reflecting a drop in aircraft orders (which were strong in May and June). However, ex-transportation orders still disappointed.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 25th, 2013
August 25, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Fed tapering concerns continued to dominate the stock market action. The minutes of the July 30th-31st Federal Open Market Committee meeting provided little clarification.
Officials noted that the unemployment rate had fallen “considerably” since last fall (when QE3 began), with “solid” gains in nonfarm payrolls in recent months, but other measures of labor force utilization suggested “more modest” improvement.
From the minutes: “A few members emphasized the importance of being patient and evaluating additional information on the economy before deciding on any changes to the pace of asset purchases. At the same time, a few others pointed to the contingent plan that had been articulated on behalf of the Committee the previous month, and suggested that it might soon be time to slow somewhat the pace of purchases as outlined in that plan.”
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 20th, 2013
August 20, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Fed tapering concerns continued to weigh against the stock market and helped push long-term interest rate higher. There’s a growing consensus that we will see some reduction in the rate of asset purchases announced next month, but the first move may be a small one, as a compromise among divided Fed officials and as a means of testing market reactions to tapering.
The market reaction to the tapering talk is still a puzzle. Tapering is not tightening and the Fed will continue to support the recovery through its guidance on short-term interest rates. However, long-term interest rates are normally going to rise as an economic recovery progresses.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 12th, 2013
August 12, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the mid-month economic data will help fill in the picture of where the economy stands in the third quarter.
Many of the reports have market-moving potential, but future Fed policy decisions are seen as being driven more by the employment figures.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 4th, 2013
August 4, 2013
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and did not alter its forward guidance (on short-term interest rates) or the monthly pace of asset purchases.
In the policy statement, the FOMC noted that growth had been “modest” in the first half of the year, that mortgage rates had risen “somewhat,” and that a persistent low trend in inflation could present some risks for the economy. All of which suggests that a tapering in the rate of asset purchases will be delayed. However, investors should still expect some tapering by the end of the year. [Read more]
Markets gain ground, await further Fed guidance
August 3, 2013
Clarksville, TN – July was certainly eventful in terms of market movements and economic news. Stocks were up for the month, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest monthly gain since January, making up for its decline in June.
All the major indices ended July in higher territory after housing prices posted their largest gain in seven years and the Commerce Department reported that advanced estimates show that gross domestic product grew more than forecast in the second quarter. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 30th, 2013
July 30, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data reports were mixed. Existing home sales fell slightly in July. New home sales jumped 8.3% (although figures for the two previous months were revised lower and the July increase was not statistically different from zero). A measure of manufacturing activity in China weakened in July, but the same measure for the euro area was about flat.
Next week, no changes are expected from the Federal Open Market Committee, but investors will be sensitive to any changes in the wording of the policy statement. Future Fed policy decisions will be driven by the economic data (or more precisely, the implications that the data will have for the economic outlook). [Read more]
