Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 3rd, 2016
July 3, 2016
Clarksville, TN – U.S. financial markets spent most of the week pricing in a greater likelihood that the United Kingdom would vote to remain in the European Union.
Oops. The surprise “leave” victory in the U.K. referendum sent markets reeling. Global stock markets fell sharply. The pound plunged (to a 30-year low). Bond yields sank, reflecting a flight to safety.
Still, this wasn’t a Lehman-type event. Market participants were simply caught leaning the wrong way. Prime Minister Cameron resigned, effective October, leaving his predecessor a lengthy negotiation with the EU on exit terms.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 19th, 2016
June 19, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected.
In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up.” At the same time, “growth in household spending has strengthened” and “the drag from net exports appears to have lessened.”
The dots in the dot plot drifted a bit lower (that is, expectations of future rate increases become even more gradual).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 12th, 2016
June 12, 2016
Clarksville, TN – Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she was “cautiously optimistic” in her speech on the economy and monetary policy. She expects that further gradual increases in the federal funds target rate will be warranted, but she also stressed a number of near-term uncertainties.
This week, the mid-month economic data releases will be important, especially Tuesday’s retail sales figures, but the focus will be on the Fed.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 5th, 2016
June 5, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed, but mostly on the soft side of expectations. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised (modestly) to the upside, boosted by a lengthening in supplier delivery times (anecdotally, many firms had trimmed inventories in anticipation of softer demand, but sales surprised and they are now scrambling a bit to restock).
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid. Unit auto sales were strong, but were supported by an increase in fleet sales (rental cars, etc.). The ADP estimate of private-sector payrolls was moderate strong, with continued hiring at small and medium-sized firms.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 22nd, 2016
May 22, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The FOMC minutes from the April 26th-27th policy meeting showed that “most [meeting] participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.”
However, “participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting.”
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 15th, 2016
May 15, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was quiet until the end of the week. April retail sales results surprised to upside, with upward revisions to February and March. This ran counter to generally weak monthly sales reports from a number of individual retailers.
March sales were likely distorted (and depressed) by the early Easter. Results reflected strong trends in nonstore retailers (which includes Internet retailers), restaurants (helped by low gasoline prices, but also reflecting a long-term trend of households taking more meals outside the home), and drug stores (which likely reflects runaway prices of pharmaceuticals).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 10th, 2016
May 10, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with moderately strong economic growth in the near term. Motor vehicle sales rebounded in April, from what appears to have been an Easter-related decline in March.
The ISM surveys split; manufacturing a bit softer, non-manufacturing a bit stronger. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 160,000 in the initial estimate for April, below the median forecast (+200,000), but not horrible (note that the economy added 1.057 million jobs before seasonal adjustment).
Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen: Looking After Your Modern Legacy
May 8, 2016
What you pass on can include digital assets and hard-earned wisdom.
Clarksville, TN – For too many, legacy planning focuses solely on the transfer of money and legal documentation, which generally fall under the estate planning umbrella. While all of that is very important, there should be a more personal aspect to the process. After all, we’re talking about your life and how you’ll be remembered.
Your stories, traditions, beliefs and values need not be taken to the grave. These things make you who you are and should be shared with your children and grandchildren. In the past, loved ones might have inherited a shoebox full of letters and photos that helped tell the story of a life well lived.
Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen: Kid-Friendly Foundational Finances
May 7, 2016
Clarksville, TN – We all like to think our children or grandchildren are practically geniuses, but some things just don’t come intuitively. Wise money habits, for example.
Everyone needs to learn the value of a dollar, how to make money work toward our goals and how to protect our financial legacy, even little kids.
In fact, the sooner you start the better.
Help kids of all ages develop smart money habits.
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 1st, 2016
May 1, 2016
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.”
The key phrase from the mid-March statement, “global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,” was removed, although officials promised to closely monitor conditions. Equities rallied on the Fed statement (in part, perhaps, because the meeting was simply out of the way), but global markets weakened after the Bank of Japan failed to stimulate further.
Frazier Allen
