The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
July 8, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
There were a lot of economic reports this week and most of them were disappointing. Consumer confidence fell in June, with sharp declines in regions affected by the Gulf oil spill. The June Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey suggested a moderation in the pace of manufacturing growth (still positive). Unit motor vehicle sales slowed somewhat in June. Pending home sales plunged in May, following the expiration of the homebuyers’ tax credit.
Weekly jobless claims were higher than anticipated. The June Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 125,000, reflecting a 225,000 decline in temporary census workers, in line with expectations. However, private-sector payrolls rose a disappointing 83,000 – softer than expected, but not a disaster. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% (from 9.7% in May and vs. expectations of 9.8%), but the decline was due largely to a decrease in labor force participation. The employment-population ratio fell to 58.5% compared to 58.7% in May and 59.4% a year ago. Average weekly hours edged down, and average hourly earnings slipped 0.1% – both disappointing. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
June 12, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Raymond James Investment Services
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were generally soft, consistent with a lackluster-to-moderate pace of economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book noted that “economic activity continued to improve since the last report,” although most Fed districts described the pace of growth as “modest.” Retail sales were much weaker than anticipated, falling by 1.2% in May, down 1.1% excluding autos. Weakness was concentrated in building materials, which could reflect the acceleration in March and April (due to the pending expiration of the homebuyer tax credit). Ex-autos, building materials and gasoline, sales edged up 0.1% following a 0.2% decline in April.
The stock market mood remained negative, with plenty of intraday volatility. However, Chinese export data suggested that the European debt crisis has not had a major impact on foreign trade. Global equity markets improved on that news and short-covering may have exaggerated the impact in the United States. The disappointing retail sales figures dampened the mood again on Friday. [Read more]
