Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 3rd, 2014
February 3, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q13, about as expected, but the details were a bit surprising. Consumer spending and business fixed investment, the key components, each rose at a respectable pace.
However, inventory growth, already elevated in 3Q13, rose further (and will likely subtract from GDP growth in 1H14). Net exports (a smaller trade deficit) added. Residential home building and government subtracted. Personal income figures rose meagerly in 4Q13, suggesting that we may see some slowing in spending ahead.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2014
January 13, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 74,000 (median forecast: +195,000, although market participants were anticipating an upside surprise following a stronger-than-expected ADP estimate).
The November payroll figure was revised to +241,000 (from +203,000). Manufacturing rose by 9,000. Construction fell by 16,000, with weakness concentrated in nonresidential and in heavy construction and civil engineering (residential rose 6,200).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 5th, 2014
January 5, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports of recent weeks contained a few surprises. Consumer spending growth in 3Q13 was stronger than previously estimated, while monthly figures showed acceleration in spending growth in the first two months of 4Q13 (although this is somewhat inconsistent with the pace of income growth).
Right now, inflation-adjusted consumer spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product) appears to be on track for about a 4% annual rate in 4Q13 – impressive, although the current figures may be revised. Durable goods orders rose more than expected in November, with the details suggesting that capital spending plans were delayed due to the government shutdown.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 4th, 2013
August 4, 2013
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and did not alter its forward guidance (on short-term interest rates) or the monthly pace of asset purchases.
In the policy statement, the FOMC noted that growth had been “modest” in the first half of the year, that mortgage rates had risen “somewhat,” and that a persistent low trend in inflation could present some risks for the economy. All of which suggests that a tapering in the rate of asset purchases will be delayed. However, investors should still expect some tapering by the end of the year. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 30th, 2013
July 30, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data reports were mixed. Existing home sales fell slightly in July. New home sales jumped 8.3% (although figures for the two previous months were revised lower and the July increase was not statistically different from zero). A measure of manufacturing activity in China weakened in July, but the same measure for the euro area was about flat.
Next week, no changes are expected from the Federal Open Market Committee, but investors will be sensitive to any changes in the wording of the policy statement. Future Fed policy decisions will be driven by the economic data (or more precisely, the implications that the data will have for the economic outlook). [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 24th, 2013
July 24, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
In his monetary policy testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.” He indicated that the Fed is using asset purchases “primarily to increase the near-term momentum of the economy, with the specific goal of achieving a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market.”
The Fed will rely on its forward guidance that short-term interest rates will continue to remain exceptionally low “to help maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation for an extended period after asset purchases end, even as the economic recovery strengthens and unemployment declines toward more normal levels.” [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 16th, 2013
July 16, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Fed Chairman Bernanke said nothing new, but the markets interpreted his comments as “dovish.” In Q&A following a speech on the history of the Fed, Bernanke said that given the high level of joblessness and low inflation, “you can only conclude that a highly accommodative monetary policy is needed.”
He also conceded that “there is some prospective gradual change in the mix of instruments, but that shouldn’t be confused with the overall thrust of policy, which is highly accommodative.” That’s consistent with the Fed beginning to lower the rate of asset purchases later this year and maintaining low short-term interest rates for a long time (well into 2015).
The June 18th-19th FOMC minutes showed that “many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases.” However, “several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases would likely soon be warranted.” [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 7th, 2013
July 7, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data were mixed. The June ISM non-manufacturing survey disappointed, but motor vehicle sales were strong and the employment report was better than anticipated. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 195,000 in June (the median forecast was 165,000), while figures for April and May were revised a net 70,000 higher.
Manufacturing payrolls continued to slide, but there were strong gains in business and professional services, as well as retail and leisure and hospitality. Payroll gains at eating and drinking establishments were strong for a third consecutive month (accounting for a little over a quarter of private-sector job gains in 2Q13).
The unemployment rate held steady at 7.6% (labor force participation edged higher). Long-term unemployment fell, but remained elevated. Unemployment rates for teenagers and young adults remain high. [Read more]
Montgomery County Relay For Life “Racing for a Cure”
May 16, 2013
Family-friendly Activities for All Ages
Clarksville, TN – Just as the effects of a challenging economy are felt by families in every community, cancer, too, has a far-reaching impact.
No matter how the stock market is performing or what the current unemployment rate may be, there are still many people battling a cancer diagnosis and many others who are lending support alongside loved ones every day.
Public Invite displayed at the intersection of Old Farmers Old and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway
