Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 2nd, 2015
August 2, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The week began with an 8.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, which sent markets down worldwide (but the Chinese market appeared to stabilize later). The Fed made only slight alterations to the wording of the monetary policy statement, and did not provide a strong signal that a September move is coming.
Real GDP rose at a 2.3% annual rate in the advance estimate for 2Q15, a bit shy of expectations, but the first quarter was revised to +0.6% (from -0.2%). Annual benchmark revisions showed a somewhat slower rate of growth in the past few years (mostly in 2013), which implies that the output gap (the difference between GDP and potential GDP) is higher than it was thought to be earlier (an important consideration for the Fed).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 29th, 2015
July 29, 2015
Clarksville, TN – This week the economic calendar is busy. The focus is likely to be on the GDP report (note that financial market participants typically over-emphasize the headline figure – the devil is in the details).
Durable goods orders are expected to have been boosted by a pickup in aircraft orders in June, but the trend in non-transportation orders has been weak in recent months. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in June – so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a modest pullback in July.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 29th, 2015
June 29, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The week began with a renewed sense of optimism that a Greek debt deal would be worked out. Sentiment then faded after negotiations with Greece’s creditors broke down, but then hopes continued that a deal would be reached over the weekend.
The economic data were mixed. Home sales figures improved in May. Durable goods orders were disappointing. The estimate of 1Q15 GDP was revised to show a -0.2% annual rate (vs. -0.7% in the second estimate), up 3.0% from a year ago. Note that the estimate of Gross Domestic Income rose at a 1.9% annual rate (+3.7% y/y).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 22nd, 2015
June 22, 2015
Clarksville, TN – In its monetary policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee recognized that “economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter.” Labor market slack has “diminished somewhat.” Growth in consumer spending has been “moderate,” while the housing sector “has shown some improvement.”
In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials lowered their forecasts of 2015 GDP growth, but raised slightly their expectations for growth in 2016 and 2017.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 14th, 2015
June 14, 2015
Clarksville, TN – Economists began the week wondering why consumers hadn’t spent the windfall from lower gasoline prices. By the end of the week, we had a partial answer. Retail sales rose strongly in May, as expected. More importantly, we had upward revisions to the data for March and April.
The Bureau of Census also released its quarterly survey of services. These two reports paint a brighter consumer spending outlook and imply an upward revision to the estimate of 1Q15 GDP growth (the second estimate showed a -0.7% annual rate, but should be revised to show a much more modest decline or perhaps a slight increase).
Frazier Allen
Investor Fears Spark U.S., World Market Selloffs
September 23, 2011
Clarksville, TN – A steady drip of weak economic performance figures from around the globe combined with a grim assessment of near-term U.S. economic prospects pushed investor confidence over the edge Thursday. Some Asian and European markets lost as much as 5% of their value. U.S. markets dropped similarly during the day, although losses diminished somewhat as trading drew to a close.
For the record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 391.01 points or 3.51% to finish the day at 10,733.80, while the broader S&P 500 dropped 37.2 points or 3.19%, to close at 1,129.56. The Nasdaq declined 82.52 points or 3.52% and closed at 2,455.67. This followed significant losses in all the indices in the previous trading session. It was the fourth consecutive day of domestic market losses. [Read more]
Update on U.S Debt Ceiling and Possible Credit Downgrades
July 25, 2011
Chances are you’ve heard about the ongoing debate surrounding raising the U.S. debt ceiling and even more recently about Moody’s announcement that it could potentially downgrade its credit rating for U.S. Treasuries and other institutions linked to the U.S. government.
On top of that, Standard & Poor’s placed the U.S. on “CreditWatch Negative” based on the rising risk of a policy stalemate. The agencies themselves believe the risk of any payment default by the U.S. government is low, but increasing slightly. [Read more]
