Stock market offers tricks and treats in October 2013

Clarksville, TN – The markets sent investors mixed messages in October, generally trending upwards despite signs of volatility around the government shutdown and subsequent reopening.

At the end of the month, stocks – which had enjoyed a days-long record run – began to show some weakness after Federal Reserve policymakers said the economy wasn’t growing quickly enough to curtail its bond purchases and dial back on some of its economic stimulus.

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Investors looking for answers from the Fed, Government

Clarksville, TN – August saw all three of the major U.S. stock market indexes fall into negative territory, as investors become more concerned about the possibility of rising rates and potential military action in Syria.

Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, also took a hit in August as their economies weakened and their currencies fell against the dollar.

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Markets gain ground, await further Fed guidance

Clarksville, TN – July was certainly eventful in terms of market movements and economic news. Stocks were up for the month, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest monthly gain since January, making up for its decline in June.

All the major indices ended July in higher territory after housing prices posted their largest gain in seven years and the Commerce Department reported that advanced estimates show that gross domestic product grew more than forecast in the second quarter. [Read more]

Stocks continue to rise in First Quarter

Clarksville, TN – The three major stock indices continued to rise in the first quarter with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Driving the S&P 500’s momentum were consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks.

Since the S&P hit its previous closing high in October 2007, the consumer discretionary sector has gained 40.4%, while staples are up 41.3% – outperforming technology and financials. [Read more]

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 17th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

The economic data were mixed, but the stock market continued to focus on the good news and ignored the rest. Retail sales rose more than expected in February, but results varied across sectors. Industrial production picked up, following a weak January (results varied by industry).

The inflation reports showed some pressure from higher gasoline, as anticipated, and moderate core inflation. Treasury reported a smaller deficit than a year ago. Initial claims for unemployment benefits continued to trend lower. Consumer sentiment fell in the mid-March assessment, with a sharp decline in expectations (down to a 15-month low).

The Dow Jones Industrials Average continued to new record highs, up 10 sessions in a row. In contrast to the optimism expressed in equities, bond yields have remained relatively low.

Next week, housing figures have some market-moving potential, but February is not a “make or break” month for the sector (weather can have an impact). The March figures will be more important. No surprises are expected from the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday.

Officials have had a public debate about the potential costs and benefits of current policy and the settled view is that the benefits (to the labor market, in particular) outweigh the potential that we may see excessive risk-taking and financial instability. The Fed will release revised projections of growth, unemployment, and inflation. Note that the Fed policy announcements will now be made at 2:00pm. On the last meeting of the quarter, the Fed will also release revised projects at 2:00 p.m. and Bernanke’s press briefings will follow at 2:30pm.

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	14539.14	14329.49	10.95%
NASDAQ	3258.93	3232.09	7.93%
S&P 500	1563.23	1544.26	9.61%
MSCI EAFE	1699.43	1682.67	5.95%
Russell 2000	953.07	934.57	12.21%

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1-year ago
Prime Rate	3.25	3.25
Fed Funds	0.17	0.15
30-year mortgage	3.51	3.92

Currencies

	Last	1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.509	1.567
Dollars per Euro	1.301	1.302
Japanese Yen per Dollar	95.880	83.630
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.023/td>	0.993
Mexican Peso per Dollar	12.465	12.700

Commodities

	Last	1-year ago
Crude Oil	93.03	105.43
Gold	1592.90	1636.25

Bond Rates

	Last	1-month ago
2-year treasury	0.26	0.27
10-year treasury	2.00	2.03
10-year municipal (TEY)	3.31	3.07

Treasury Yield Curve – 03/15/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 03/15/2013

Economic Calendar

March 18th	—	Homebuilder Sentiment (March)
March 19th	—	Building Permits, Housing Starts (February)
March 20th	—	FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing
March 21st	—	Jobless Claims (week ending March 16th) Philadelphia Fed Index (March) Existing Home Sales (February) Leading Economic Indicators (February)
March 26th	—	Durable Goods Orders (February) New Home Sales (February) Consumer Confidence (March)
March 29th	—	Good Friday Holiday (markets closed) Personal Income and Spending (February)
April 5th	—	Employment Report (March)
April 10th	—	FOMC Minutes (March 20th)

Important Disclosures

[320left]Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business February 28th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Market Update: November seems promising after an eventful October

Clarksville, TN – This has been an interesting month, to say the least. Not only did we mark the 83rd anniversary of the Black Tuesday stock market crash, but we also saw Hurricane Sandy shut down the New York Stock Exchange for two days during the final week of the month.

The last time a hurricane closed the NYSE was September 1985. We have to go back to 1888 for the last time markets closed on consecutive days due to weather. [Read more]

Markets Tumble on Signs of Weakening Global, U.S. Economies

Clarksville, TN – Stocks fell sharply yesterday around the world, accelerating a widespread decline that began as the United States approached the August 2 deadline for averting default and then resumed with even more intensity after a brief rally when a debt/budget deal was reached in Washington.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 512.76, or 4.31%, while the broader S&P 500 dropped 60.27, or 4.78%, and the tech-oriented Nasdaq declined 136.68, or 5.67%. [Read more]

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