Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 29th, 2014
June 29, 2014
Clarksville, TN – GDP growth was revised to a -2.9% annual rate in the third estimate for 1Q14 (vs. -1.0% in the 2nd estimate and +0.1% in the advance estimate).
Prior estimates showed that a slower rate of inventory accumulation and a wider trade deficit subtracted considerably from overall growth – the third estimate showed a somewhat larger subtraction of 3.2 percentage points from the headline GDP growth figure (Domestic Final Sales, GDP less net exports and the change in inventories, rose at a 0.3% annual rate).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 22nd, 2014
June 22, 2014
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, reaffirmed its forward guidance on the federal funds target rate, and trimmed another $10 billion from the monthly pace of asset purchases (to $35 billion starting in July). In the Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials lowered their projections for 2014 GDP growth.
However, that was due entirely to the reported decline in 1Q14 GDP. Implicitly, Fed officials are expecting a 3.1% to 3.4% average pace of GDP growth in the final three quarters of 2014. The forecasts ranges for GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 were the same as the ones made in March.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 18th, 2014
June 18, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Developments in Iraq sent oil prices higher and undermined stock market sentiment. Note that oil price shocks are viewed as a restrain on economic growth rather than a catalyst for a higher underlying trend in inflation (as opposed to the 1970s, when they quickly fed through to wage inflation).
Iraq is one more concern to be added to the list of worries for the second half of the year. The stock market often climbs “a wall of worry,” but sometimes the wall wins.
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Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 10th, 2013
February 10, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein fell short of declaring that credit markets are overheating, but suggested that an extended period of low interest rates could lead to the taking on of greater duration of credit risks, or to employment of greater leverage in a “reach for yield.” He said that the Fed must monitor the financial markets closely and could address signs of excessive risk-taking through regulatory efforts or through monetary policy.
Next week, President Barack Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday evening (which is also Mardi Gras). Most likely, the President will ask that Congress postpone the sequester through the end of the year. Note that it’s not costless to do so – there has to be an offsetting increase in revenues (possibly closed loopholes) or reduction in other types of spending (say, reduced farm subsidies). The reports on retail sales and industrial production have some market-moving potential, but seasonal adjustment could exaggerate what would otherwise be minor shifts in the data. [Read more]
