Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 6th, 2015
September 6, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with moderately strong growth. Unit auto sales improved in August. The ISM Manufacturing Index slowed. The Non-Manufacturing Index pulled back a bit after surging in July (still strong). The Fed’s Beige Book described growth as evenly split between “modest” and “moderate” across the 12 Fed districts.
The August employment report was mixed, but generally strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 173,000 (median forecast: +220,000), but with a net revision of +44,000 to June and July.
Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen: Equity markets stumble in August on global worries
September 2, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The equity markets, and subsequently investors, experienced some wild swings toward the end of August, spurred in part by China’s faltering economy and a drop in oil prices. On paper, global equities have lost trillions in value after China unexpectedly devalued its currency earlier this month.
The move triggered concern that one of the world’s largest economies, especially its manufacturing sector, is growing at a slower rate. Consumer confidence also declined in August as the stock market turbulence dulled Americans’ outlook for the economy.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 30th, 2015
August 30, 2015
Clarksville, TN – A sharp drop in China’s stock market rattled investors’ nerves around the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 1,000 points at the open on Monday, regrouped, and then fell again, leaving the benchmark index down 588.
Volatility continued throughout the week, but investors were encouraged by China’s efforts to shore up its stock market and support economic growth. Oil prices fell further, but picked up by the end of the week. The market volatility has left investors struggling to figure out where share prices should be. Volatility is expected to decrease in coming days, but may continue for a while.
Frazier Allen
Interpreting Wall Street’s wild swings benefits from perspective
August 26, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The stock market sell-off continued Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major domestic indices saw a significant drop in early morning trading, regained some ground as the day progressed, but still closed down 3% to 4% for the day.
Global markets were also down, notably in China, Hong Kong, Germany and the United Kingdom. The pullback appears to be driven by concern over slowing global growth, particularly as China’s economy (one of the world’s largest) falters, as well as the drop in commodity prices, namely oil.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 26th, 2015
January 26, 2015
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled that it would begin a quantitative easing program, purchasing €60 billion per month in public and private securities through September 2016.
The amount of monthly purchases was a bit higher than anticipated, but that included the ECB’s already-existing program to purchase asset-backed securities and covered bonds. The ECB’s announcement sent the euro sharply lower.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 11th, 2015
January 11, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was strong, but with some conflicting details. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a greater-than-expected 252,000 (median forecast: +240,000), with a net revision to October and November of +50,000.
It was the strongest year for job growth since 1999 (and the strongest private-sector job growth since 1997). The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% (median forecast: 5.7%), with annual benchmark revisions making little difference – however, the drop in the unemployment rate was due entirely to a decrease in labor force participation (don’t read too much into that, seasonal adjustment is tricky in December).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 4th, 2015
January 4, 2015
Clarksville, TN – Two days before Christmas, the government revised its estimate of 3Q14 GDP growth sharply higher (to 5.0%, vs. +3.9% in the 2nd estimate). Most of the revision was in consumer spending (a 3.2% annual rate, vs. +2.2%), which accounts for 70% of the economy.
Moreover, the monthly figures through November suggest an even stronger pace of consumer spending growth in 4Q14 (4.0% to 4.5%). It’s not hard to do the consumer spending calculation (and the monthly figures are subject to revision), but the markets seemed not to fully reflect the improved consumer outlook.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 22nd, 2014
December 22, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The stock market’s anxieties about oil prices, the Fed, and the rest of the world gave way to a renewed sense of optimism (or at least less pessimism).
Heading into the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the key question was whether it would abandon the “considerable time” phrase. The FOMC had it both ways, removing the phrase, saying instead that it could “be patient” in deciding when to begin normalizing policy, but quickly adding that the intent is exactly the same.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 14th, 2014
December 14, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Retail sales figures for November were stronger than expected, while results for September and October were revised higher. The report suggests that consumer spending growth is on a moderately strong path in 4Q14 – and we aren’t even close to seeing the full impact of the drop in gasoline prices (expect a bigger benefit for the consumer in the first half of 2015).
The retail sales data did little to offset the negative mood in equities. A further sharp decline in crude oil prices added to the anxiety. A sustained drop in oil prices will be a significant negative for oil producers here and abroad.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 7th, 2014
December 7, 2014
Clarksville, TN – In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has reacted negatively to bad economic news out of Japan, China, and the euro area and positively to efforts by the corresponding central banks to spur growth. The European Central Bank did not make that extra effort on Thursday.
After strong hints that quantitative easing is on the way, the ECB’s Governing Council disappointed by failing to launch QE. ECB President Draghi indicated that further extraordinary measures could be employed “if needed.” The ECB staff and euro systems have stepped up technical preparations for QE, but Draghi seemed to suggest that there is no haste toward QE.
Frazier Allen
