Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 29th, 2014
June 29, 2014
Clarksville, TN – GDP growth was revised to a -2.9% annual rate in the third estimate for 1Q14 (vs. -1.0% in the 2nd estimate and +0.1% in the advance estimate).
Prior estimates showed that a slower rate of inventory accumulation and a wider trade deficit subtracted considerably from overall growth – the third estimate showed a somewhat larger subtraction of 3.2 percentage points from the headline GDP growth figure (Domestic Final Sales, GDP less net exports and the change in inventories, rose at a 0.3% annual rate).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 22nd, 2014
June 22, 2014
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, reaffirmed its forward guidance on the federal funds target rate, and trimmed another $10 billion from the monthly pace of asset purchases (to $35 billion starting in July). In the Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials lowered their projections for 2014 GDP growth.
However, that was due entirely to the reported decline in 1Q14 GDP. Implicitly, Fed officials are expecting a 3.1% to 3.4% average pace of GDP growth in the final three quarters of 2014. The forecasts ranges for GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 were the same as the ones made in March.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 18th, 2014
June 18, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Developments in Iraq sent oil prices higher and undermined stock market sentiment. Note that oil price shocks are viewed as a restrain on economic growth rather than a catalyst for a higher underlying trend in inflation (as opposed to the 1970s, when they quickly fed through to wage inflation).
Iraq is one more concern to be added to the list of worries for the second half of the year. The stock market often climbs “a wall of worry,” but sometimes the wall wins.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 19th, 2014
May 19, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Concerns about the economic recovery at home and abroad helped pushed long-term interest rates lower (with the 10-year Treasury yield below 2.5%). Stocks fell broadly.
The economic data were mixed. April retail sales and industrial production disappointed, but there were upward revisions to previous figures. Building permits and housing starts jumped sharply in April, but strength was concentrated in the volatile multi-family sector.
Single-family construction activity improved only modestly. The Consumer Price Index rose in line with expectations, reflecting higher prices of food and gasoline. A jump in airline fares added to the core CPI.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 11th, 2014
May 11, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was stronger than expected, but the details of the report, including comments from supply managers, suggested that growth was not especially strong.
In her congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that “although real GDP growth is currently estimated to have paused in the first quarter of this year, I see that pause as mostly reflecting transitory factors, including the effects of the unusually cold and snowy winter weather,” adding “many recent indicators suggest that a rebound in spending and production is already under way, putting the overall economy on track for solid growth in the current quarter.”
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 4th, 2014
May 4, 2014
Clarksville, TN – There were a lot of economic data reports this week. Most of them were consistent with weather-related restraint in 1Q14 and a rebound in activity into early 2Q14. Real GDP rose at a 0.1% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q14 – while weather was a factor, the GDP growth figure was also trimmed by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory growth.
Personal income and spending figures improved in March, with upward revisions to figures for February. Unit auto sales slowed a little in April, still well above the first quarter average.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 29th, 2014
April 29, 2014
Clarksville, TN – March home sales figures were disappointing and while the numbers are normally choppy, suggested that there may be something more to the slowdown in housing than bad weather (mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, while prices have risen significantly over the last three years).
Next week, it’s a very busy calendar, with fresh figures for April. Consumer confidence is expected to pick up. Real GDP growth is likely to be relatively soft (0.4% to +1.4%), with a weather-related restraint on consumer spending and homebuilding, drags from slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit, and a rebound in government (following the drag from the shutdown in 4Q13).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 22nd, 2014
April 22, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Stock market participants seemed only mildly concerned about escalating tensions in Ukraine, but were encouraged by comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen suggest that the Fed would respond to significant, surprising changes in the outlook for growth, inflation expectations, or financial conditions.
Short-term interest rates aren’t going to be raised for a while, but the first increase in rates could be pushed out if the Fed remains short of its goals (full employment, 2% inflation).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 13th, 2014
April 13, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was relatively thin. The Producer Price Index rose more than expected in March, reflecting a pickup in services (which had fallen in February). Details continue to suggest limited inflation pressure in the pipeline.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data continued to suggest a large amount of slack in the job market (hiring rates and quit rates are trending flat, still low by historical standards). The IMF slightly lowered its forecast for global growth this year and next, with larger downward shifts in the outlook for Russia and Brazil.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 6th, 2014
April 6, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The data remained consistent with a continued economic recovery. However, it’s unclear how much of the improvement is simply a rebound from bad weather and how much is underlying strength.
The monthly ISM surveys were mixed. Motor vehicle sales rebounded sharply in March (suggesting that bad weather postponed sales, just as we saw with the government shutdown in October). The March Employment Report was close to expectations.
Frazier Allen
