Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 13th, 2015
December 13, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. The headline retail sales figures for November were not far from expectations, but core sales (which exclude autos, building materials and gasoline) were up 0.6% (stronger than anticipated). The Producer Price Index continued to reflect disinflation pressure, with falling prices within the pipeline.
Commodity prices fell further, led by a drop in oil (now below the critical $40.00 level). Anxieties about the decline in commodity prices fed through to the stock market, which fell broadly during the week and cast some doubt about the Fed’s ability to raise rates next week (still likely, but increased financial instability could lead to a delay).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 8th, 2015
November 8, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The October employment report was much stronger than anticipated. However, figures should be considered in their proper context. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 271,000, with a net upward revision to the two previous months of +12,000.
Due to the start of the school year, seasonal adjustment can be tricky in October (we added 1.152 million jobs before seasonal adjustment, versus 1.081 million in October 2014).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 1st, 2015
November 1, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, but the tone of the policy statement was unexpectedly hawkish. The FOMC removed the phrase about downside risks from the global economy, but said that it would monitor global economic and financial developments.
It also specifically talked about the decision framework for “the next meeting,” clearly putting a December 16th rate hike back in play.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 28th, 2015
October 28, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was light. Residential construction figures were mixed, largely reflecting the usual noise in the multi-family sector data (single-family starts and permits were little changed and still up strongly from a year ago). Existing home sales rebounded from a surprise drop in August. The four-week average for jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1973.
Earnings reports were mixed, but investors appeared to be encouraged by the view that economic growth will continue, but not so fast that the Federal Reserve rushes to take away the punch bowl.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 27th, 2015
September 27, 2015
Clarksville, TN – In Janet Yellen’s first public speech after the recent FOMC meeting, the Fed chair downplayed concerns about the rest of the world and placed herself among the majority of Fed officials expecting to raise short-term interest rates by the end of the year. In a scary moment for investors, Yellen struggled to finish her speech.
She repeatedly lost her place, paused for long periods, and looked generally unwell. She received medical treatment. A Fed spokesperson said that she was dehydrated and that she felt fine later. While stock market participants have been worried about Fed tightening, they seemed to have been more encouraged by Yellen’s expressed confidence in the U.S. economy.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 20th, 2015
September 20, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee delayed the start of policy normalization, citing concerns about global economic and financial developments.
The FOMC is not reacting to overseas developments per se, but rather to the implications for the U.S. economy (some restraint on growth, further downward pressure on inflation). In the revised dot plot, there was little agreement about where the federal funds rate would be at the end of 2016 and 2017.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 22nd, 2015
June 22, 2015
Clarksville, TN – In its monetary policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee recognized that “economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter.” Labor market slack has “diminished somewhat.” Growth in consumer spending has been “moderate,” while the housing sector “has shown some improvement.”
In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials lowered their forecasts of 2015 GDP growth, but raised slightly their expectations for growth in 2016 and 2017.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 14th, 2015
June 14, 2015
Clarksville, TN – Economists began the week wondering why consumers hadn’t spent the windfall from lower gasoline prices. By the end of the week, we had a partial answer. Retail sales rose strongly in May, as expected. More importantly, we had upward revisions to the data for March and April.
The Bureau of Census also released its quarterly survey of services. These two reports paint a brighter consumer spending outlook and imply an upward revision to the estimate of 1Q15 GDP growth (the second estimate showed a -0.7% annual rate, but should be revised to show a much more modest decline or perhaps a slight increase).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 24th, 2015
May 24, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed. Homebuilder sentiment declined in May, but residential homebuilding was stronger than expected in April.
Some of that reflects a rebound from bad weather, but it’s also a consequence of the high level of volatility in the multifamily sector (single-family permits were higher, but not exactly booming). Consumer price inflation remained negative on a year-over-year basis (-0.2%), but core inflation rose slightly more than anticipated.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 17th, 2015
May 17, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The mid-month economic data disappointed. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in April. Industrial production fell short of expectations. Consumer sentiment slid in the mid-May assessment.
However, weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained remarkably low. The reports on import prices and producer prices continued to show disinflationary pressures.
Real GDP for the euro area rose 0.4% q/q (a 1.7% annual rate) in the flash estimate for the first quarter. Bond yields in Europe moved higher, but seemed to meet some resistance.
Frazier Allen
