Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 26th, 2014
January 26, 2014
Clarksville, TN – With a thin economic calendar, U.S. investors typically focus on other things. Sometimes, that’s earnings reports (which have been generally good). Other times, it’s overseas developments.
While the economic situation seems to be improving in the United Kingdom and in Europe, the rest of the world is looking a bit shakier. There have been a number of concerns about individual countries in recent weeks (China, Turkey, Argentina, and so on), but these concerns appear to have now gelled into anxieties about emerging economies in general, which has weighed against U.S. stock market sentiment.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 19th, 2014
January 19, 2014
Clarksville, TN – There were few surprises in the economic data reports. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Consumer Price Index were all relatively close to expectations. Retail sales slowed in December, reflecting a pullback in unit auto sales, up moderately otherwise (weakness in department store sales were offset by stronger e-tail activity).
Industrial production rose 0.3%, held back by a drop in the output of utilities, but factory output accelerated in 4Q13, following a soft trend in the first three quarters of 2013 (consistent with improving trends in factory payrolls and new orders). Residential construction figures disappointed, but it’s hard to get too worked up about December data (which can be exaggerated due to the weather and seasonal adjustment).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2014
January 13, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 74,000 (median forecast: +195,000, although market participants were anticipating an upside surprise following a stronger-than-expected ADP estimate).
The November payroll figure was revised to +241,000 (from +203,000). Manufacturing rose by 9,000. Construction fell by 16,000, with weakness concentrated in nonresidential and in heavy construction and civil engineering (residential rose 6,200).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 5th, 2014
January 5, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports of recent weeks contained a few surprises. Consumer spending growth in 3Q13 was stronger than previously estimated, while monthly figures showed acceleration in spending growth in the first two months of 4Q13 (although this is somewhat inconsistent with the pace of income growth).
Right now, inflation-adjusted consumer spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product) appears to be on track for about a 4% annual rate in 4Q13 – impressive, although the current figures may be revised. Durable goods orders rose more than expected in November, with the details suggesting that capital spending plans were delayed due to the government shutdown.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 30th, 2013
December 30, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to be the highlight, although the December figures can be exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment.
Market participants are likely to look ahead to the Employment Report.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 10th, 2013
December 10, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Fear of Fed tapering hung over the stock market. Market participants believed that the November Employment Report would be the deciding factor for whether the Fed will begin to reduce the pace of asset purchases this month.
The jobs report was stronger than anticipated, but not as bad as feared. Payrolls rose by 203,000, a bit more than expected (median forecast: +180,000), with a mild net revision of +8,000 to the two previous months. Job gains were relatively broad-based.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 3rd, 2013
November 3, 2013
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee did not alter the pace of asset purchases (currently $85 billion per month). The FOMC noted that “the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months,” but removed the phrase (from the September 18th statement that “the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market.”
That suggests that the Fed could still begin to taper the pace of asset purchases at the December policy meeting if the economic data between now and then are strong enough (although that’s not seen as likely).
Frazier Allen
