Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 24th, 2015
May 24, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed. Homebuilder sentiment declined in May, but residential homebuilding was stronger than expected in April.
Some of that reflects a rebound from bad weather, but it’s also a consequence of the high level of volatility in the multifamily sector (single-family permits were higher, but not exactly booming). Consumer price inflation remained negative on a year-over-year basis (-0.2%), but core inflation rose slightly more than anticipated.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 17th, 2015
May 17, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The mid-month economic data disappointed. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in April. Industrial production fell short of expectations. Consumer sentiment slid in the mid-May assessment.
However, weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained remarkably low. The reports on import prices and producer prices continued to show disinflationary pressures.
Real GDP for the euro area rose 0.4% q/q (a 1.7% annual rate) in the flash estimate for the first quarter. Bond yields in Europe moved higher, but seemed to meet some resistance.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 10th, 2015
May 10, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The April employment report was in line with expectations. Details suggested: 1) a rebound from March weather effects; 2) some moderation in the underlying pace of job growth (relative to the very brisk pace of 4Q14); and 3) a very gradual pace of reduction in labor market slack.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000, while the weather-restrained March increase was revised down to +85,000 (from +126,000) – leaving an average monthly gain of 154,000 for March and April. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, up 2.2% year-over-year (still lackluster).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 8th, 2015
February 8, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The January Employment Report was strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 (median forecast: +235,000), with a net upward revision of +147,000 to the two previous months (three month average at +336,000). Payrolls fell by 2.76 million before seasonal adjustment, but were up 3.21 million from a year earlier.
The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% (from 5.6%) reflecting noise in the labor force participation figure (down in December, up in January). The employment/population ratio edged higher. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5%, following a 0.2% decline in December (up 2.2% y/y, still a relatively lackluster trend).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 1st, 2015
February 1, 2015
Clarksville, TN – As expected, Greece’s election resulted in a turn to the left. The new leadership indicated that it intends to remain in the euro, but will seek a reduction in austerity and some restructuring of the country’s debt.
That sets up a conflict with other European countries that oppose such moves. This will likely take some time to resolve, with headlines expected to add to global financial market volatility in the weeks to come. Meanwhile, euro area inflation fell to -0.6% y/y.
Real GDP rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q14 (vs. a median forecast of +3.1%), but it was still a good report. As expected, it was a strong quarter for consumer spending (+4.3%), but a relatively soft quarter for business fixed investment (+1.9%).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 26th, 2015
January 26, 2015
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled that it would begin a quantitative easing program, purchasing €60 billion per month in public and private securities through September 2016.
The amount of monthly purchases was a bit higher than anticipated, but that included the ECB’s already-existing program to purchase asset-backed securities and covered bonds. The ECB’s announcement sent the euro sharply lower.
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Investors looking for answers from the Fed, Government
September 4, 2013
Clarksville, TN – August saw all three of the major U.S. stock market indexes fall into negative territory, as investors become more concerned about the possibility of rising rates and potential military action in Syria.
Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, also took a hit in August as their economies weakened and their currencies fell against the dollar.
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Market Update from Frazier Allen, June 23rd, 2013
June 23, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Equities across the globe fell sharply after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke implied that the central bank may start to wind down its asset purchases later this year if the economy continues to improve. The three major domestic indices took a hit, and the CBOE Volatility Index spiked to a new high this year.
The statement triggered a selloff on Wednesday and Thursday, as markets reacted to the prospect of higher interest rates. Many market observers already had forecast when this third round of quantitative easing would dial down, but the markets responded regardless. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 10th, 2013
February 10, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein fell short of declaring that credit markets are overheating, but suggested that an extended period of low interest rates could lead to the taking on of greater duration of credit risks, or to employment of greater leverage in a “reach for yield.” He said that the Fed must monitor the financial markets closely and could address signs of excessive risk-taking through regulatory efforts or through monetary policy.
Next week, President Barack Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday evening (which is also Mardi Gras). Most likely, the President will ask that Congress postpone the sequester through the end of the year. Note that it’s not costless to do so – there has to be an offsetting increase in revenues (possibly closed loopholes) or reduction in other types of spending (say, reduced farm subsidies). The reports on retail sales and industrial production have some market-moving potential, but seasonal adjustment could exaggerate what would otherwise be minor shifts in the data. [Read more]
