Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 26th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – Mixed, but generally favorable, earnings reports and an ebbing in Ebola fears helped propel the major stock market indices higher.

The economic data were largely irrelevant. The Consumer Price Index continued to show a low trend in inflation (+1.7% y/y for both the headline index and the core). Home sales figures were mixed. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.8% suggesting little chance of a recession anytime soon

Next week, the earnings calendar is brisk with about a third of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting. There are two key items on the economic calendar: the Fed policy meeting and the advance estimate of 3Q14 GDP growth.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 19th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – What a week. Concerns about the downside risks to Europe and the rest of the world pushed global equity markets down and the U.S. followed. The economic data mattered little for the most part, but disappointing retail sales figures added to the drop in U.S. stocks on Wednesday.

Yields on long-term Treasuries sank sharply. Following a few days of elevated volatility, the financial markets appeared to settle down on Friday.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 7th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – There were plenty of economic data reports, but the financial markets mostly obsessed about other things (quarter–end positioning, soft global growth, geopolitical tensions, Ebola). The headline figures from the employment report were better than expected, a positive for stocks and a negative for bonds.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 248,000 in September, while the two previous months were revised a net 69,000 higher. Some of the strength reflected a rebound from special factors that had reduced the August total.

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Equity markets slide after an eventful month

Clarksville, TN – The last week of July has been eventful on a number of fronts. The economic calendar was packed, geopolitical tensions intensified and Argentina teetered on the edge of default, eventually going over. This is the second time the South American country has defaulted on its debt in the past 13 years.

The default may be short-lived if Argentina can reach an agreement to pay its missed $1.5 billion interest payment.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 16th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – In her first monetary policy testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Janet Yellen appeared calm, confident, and in charge.

She pledged continuity in monetary policy and regulatory reform. While “not on a preset path,” the monthly pace of asset purchases will likely be reduced “in further measured steps at future meetings” (which is widely interpreted as -$10 billion per Fed policy meeting).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 74,000 (median forecast: +195,000, although market participants were anticipating an upside surprise following a stronger-than-expected ADP estimate).

The November payroll figure was revised to +241,000 (from +203,000). Manufacturing rose by 9,000. Construction fell by 16,000, with weakness concentrated in nonresidential and in heavy construction and civil engineering (residential rose 6,200).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 5th, 2014

Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports of recent weeks contained a few surprises. Consumer spending growth in 3Q13 was stronger than previously estimated, while monthly figures showed acceleration in spending growth in the first two months of 4Q13 (although this is somewhat inconsistent with the pace of income growth).

Right now, inflation-adjusted consumer spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product) appears to be on track for about a 4% annual rate in 4Q13 – impressive, although the current figures may be revised. Durable goods orders rose more than expected in November, with the details suggesting that capital spending plans were delayed due to the government shutdown.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 30th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to be the highlight, although the December figures can be exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment.

Market participants are likely to look ahead to the Employment Report.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 19th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – Taper, no tantrum. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion in January. The FOMC added that it expects to further reduce the pace of asset purchases “in measured steps” depending on the economic data (that may mean every other Fed policy meeting in 2014).

It also emphasized that the federal funds target rate would remain in its current low range (0-0.25%) even after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 4th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and did not alter its forward guidance (on short-term interest rates) or the monthly pace of asset purchases.

In the policy statement, the FOMC noted that growth had been “modest” in the first half of the year, that mortgage rates had risen “somewhat,” and that a persistent low trend in inflation could present some risks for the economy. All of which suggests that a tapering in the rate of asset purchases will be delayed. However, investors should still expect some tapering by the end of the year. [Read more]

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