Frazier Allen: Domestic Stocks Climb Higher in July
August 12, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both reached new highs during July, and the S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive monthly gain.
According to research by Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Saut, historically, any time the broad market S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high after 52 weeks spent below the previous high-water mark, we have seen average gains of 12.3% over the course of the next year.
The dog days of summer don’t seem to be slowing the markets down.
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 7th, 2014
October 7, 2014
Clarksville, TN – There were plenty of economic data reports, but the financial markets mostly obsessed about other things (quarter–end positioning, soft global growth, geopolitical tensions, Ebola). The headline figures from the employment report were better than expected, a positive for stocks and a negative for bonds.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 248,000 in September, while the two previous months were revised a net 69,000 higher. Some of the strength reflected a rebound from special factors that had reduced the August total.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 28th, 2014
September 28, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The estimate of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised upward from 4.2% to 4.6%, as expected.
Existing home sales fell in August, reflecting a decline in speculators (i.e., fewer all-cash transactions). New home sales surged 18.9%, but that likely reflects the usual volatility in the data.
Durable goods orders fell 18%, reflecting an unwinding of July’s sharp spike in civilian aircraft orders. The three-month averages of shipments and orders for nondefense capital goods (ex-aircraft) suggest good strength in business fixed investments.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 5th, 2014
January 5, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports of recent weeks contained a few surprises. Consumer spending growth in 3Q13 was stronger than previously estimated, while monthly figures showed acceleration in spending growth in the first two months of 4Q13 (although this is somewhat inconsistent with the pace of income growth).
Right now, inflation-adjusted consumer spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product) appears to be on track for about a 4% annual rate in 4Q13 – impressive, although the current figures may be revised. Durable goods orders rose more than expected in November, with the details suggesting that capital spending plans were delayed due to the government shutdown.
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Stocks continue to rise in First Quarter
April 5, 2013
Clarksville, TN – The three major stock indices continued to rise in the first quarter with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Driving the S&P 500’s momentum were consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks.
Since the S&P hit its previous closing high in October 2007, the consumer discretionary sector has gained 40.4%, while staples are up 41.3% – outperforming technology and financials. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 3rd, 2013
February 3, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
With so many economic reports, some surprises were likely. Real GDP fell at a 0.1% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q12, smacked down by slower inventory growth and a 22.2% drop in defense spending (otherwise, GDP would have risen 2.5%). Consumer spending rose at a 2.2% pace in 4Q12, while business fixed investment advanced 8.4%. Residential construction added 0.4 percentage points to GDP. Exports fell.
Consumer Confidence tanked in January, while the Consumer Sentiment Index improved. The ISM Manufacturing Index was stronger than anticipated. Personal income jumped 2.6%, reflecting a 34.3% spike in dividend income and earlier bonus payments. Spending rose 0.2%. The PCE Price Index was flat overall (+1.3%) and ex-food and energy (+1.4% y/y) – trending well below the Fed’s 2% goal. [Read more]
Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 30th, 2013
January 30, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The House voted to delay the need for a debt ceiling increase by three months, to May 19. Congress has not had a real budget since 2009, funding the government through a series of stopgap measures (Continuing Resolutions). This week, Congress set a goal to have a real budget by April 15th, or lawmakers won’t get paid. Actually, they’ll still get paid eventually.
Oh, and the House and Senate only have to come up with a budget that can be approved by one chamber. They don’t have to have a set of budget bills that can be approved by both chambers (that is, something that could be sent to the president and signed into law). Spending cuts are still slated to kick in on March 1st, with about half of that in defense. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 20th, 2013
January 20, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales and industrial production were largely in line with expectations. Jobless claims sank and housing starts jumped, boosting the major stock market indices, although seasonal adjustment likely played a part. The Fed’s two major regional surveys disappointed, reflecting contractions in new orders and employment and some pickup in input price pressures.
Earnings reports were mixed, but investors seemed more concerned with the path ahead. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2013
January 13, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The economic calendar was thin. Jobless claims continued to trend at a moderately low level. The trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November. As a result, net exports are likely to subtract from 4Q12 GDP growth.
With little economic data, the stock market began to focus on earnings reports. President Obama nominated Jack Lew to succeed Timothy Geithner as treasury secretary. The move likely signals an emphasis on upcoming battles. Lew currently serves as Obama’s chief of staff. He also ran the Office of Management and Budget for both Clinton and Obama. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 6th, 2013
January 6, 2013
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
On New Year’s Day (technically, the December 31 legislative workday), Congress approved the Senate’s plan to lessen the impact of the fiscal cliff. The American Tax Relief Act (ATRA) raises taxes for upper income households. The passage of the plan removes a major uncertainty for the financial markets. That is, we now know what tax rates are going to be.
However, there were a number of problems with the plan. Congress failed to prevent (or offset) a two percentage point increase in payroll taxes, which should dampen consumer spending growth in the near term. The bill postponed large spending cuts by two months, did little to reduce the long-term budget shortfall, and did not address the federal debt ceiling. [Read more]
