Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 27th, 2016
January 27, 2016
Clarksville, TN – Global worries continued, but the U.S. stock market rebounded somewhat after a sharp slide on Wednesday, lending hope to the view that the worst is behind us. Oil prices also improved, but it’s not clear whether the global outlook was helped by higher oil prices or the other way around.
Yields on long-term Treasuries fell on the flight to safety, but that was partly unwound as global worries eased at the end of the week. Investors also took encouragement from European Central Bank President Draghi’s comments that the ECB will review and reconsider its policy outlook in March.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 16th, 2016
January 17, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The important economic data reports were bunched up on Friday. December retail sales results were somewhat disappointing. Industrial production was weighed down by mild temperatures (lower output of utilities) and a further contraction in energy exploration.
Manufacturing output edged down modestly, mixed across sectors, but generally soft over the last several months. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply in January.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 13th, 2015
December 13, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. The headline retail sales figures for November were not far from expectations, but core sales (which exclude autos, building materials and gasoline) were up 0.6% (stronger than anticipated). The Producer Price Index continued to reflect disinflation pressure, with falling prices within the pipeline.
Commodity prices fell further, led by a drop in oil (now below the critical $40.00 level). Anxieties about the decline in commodity prices fed through to the stock market, which fell broadly during the week and cast some doubt about the Fed’s ability to raise rates next week (still likely, but increased financial instability could lead to a delay).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 6th, 2015
December 6, 2015
Clarksville, TN – Fed Chair Janet Yellen did not commit to raising rates in December, but she continued to lay the groundwork for an initial hike. She noted that with interest rates close to zero, the consequence of raising rates too soon or too late is not symmetric, which suggests that the Fed should be cautious as it prepares to tighten monetary policy.
However, she also noted that monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, and waiting too long raises risks for the economy and for financial stability.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 8th, 2015
November 8, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The October employment report was much stronger than anticipated. However, figures should be considered in their proper context. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 271,000, with a net upward revision to the two previous months of +12,000.
Due to the start of the school year, seasonal adjustment can be tricky in October (we added 1.152 million jobs before seasonal adjustment, versus 1.081 million in October 2014).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 1st, 2015
November 1, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, but the tone of the policy statement was unexpectedly hawkish. The FOMC removed the phrase about downside risks from the global economy, but said that it would monitor global economic and financial developments.
It also specifically talked about the decision framework for “the next meeting,” clearly putting a December 16th rate hike back in play.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 28th, 2015
October 28, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was light. Residential construction figures were mixed, largely reflecting the usual noise in the multi-family sector data (single-family starts and permits were little changed and still up strongly from a year ago). Existing home sales rebounded from a surprise drop in August. The four-week average for jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1973.
Earnings reports were mixed, but investors appeared to be encouraged by the view that economic growth will continue, but not so fast that the Federal Reserve rushes to take away the punch bowl.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 15th, 2015
March 15, 2015
Clarksville, TN – Retail sales results for February continued to disappoint and consumer sentiment slipped unexpectedly, but weather may have been a factor. The reports on import prices and producer prices both showed significant disinflationary pressure (which may be seen as delaying the Fed’s initial hike in short-term interest rates). Stock market volatility was elevated, with sharp moves day by day.
Market participants have grown increasingly worried about exchange rates. Around the world, exchange rates mostly fall under the jurisdiction of finance ministers (the Treasury in the U.S.), not the central banks.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 11th, 2015
March 11, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but the February Employment Report was stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 (±105,000), with a revision to January of -18,000. The BLS indicated that the payroll survey missed most of the bad weather that hit last month.
The household survey showed that 328,000 could not make it to work due to bad weather, which is about average (it was 601,000 in February 2014). Average weekly hours held steady (no weather impact).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 14th, 2014
December 14, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Retail sales figures for November were stronger than expected, while results for September and October were revised higher. The report suggests that consumer spending growth is on a moderately strong path in 4Q14 – and we aren’t even close to seeing the full impact of the drop in gasoline prices (expect a bigger benefit for the consumer in the first half of 2015).
The retail sales data did little to offset the negative mood in equities. A further sharp decline in crude oil prices added to the anxiety. A sustained drop in oil prices will be a significant negative for oil producers here and abroad.
Frazier Allen
