The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
August 14, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left short-term interest rates unchanged and repeated that “economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” In its assessment of the economic outlook, the FOMC noted that “the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.”
More importantly, the FOMC voted to keep the level of its securities holdings constant by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in long-term Treasury securities. By itself, this isn’t a huge move, but it is an important signal that the Fed could do more later on. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
July 28, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
- Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
In addition to the mostly positive corporate earnings reports this week, the focus fell on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s monetary policy testimony – before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and in front of the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. While he didn’t offer anything new in support of the economy, he assured the legislators the Fed remains “prepared to take further policy actions as needed.”
In prepared remarks, Bernanke said the economy is “proceeding at a moderate pace.” On the positive side, he noted that business and household demand is rising, but that housing and commercial construction are weak – and that continuing job market weakness is holding back consumer demand. It will require “a significant amount of time” to recoup the 8.5 million jobs lost in 2008 and 2009, he said, citing the latest Fed projections that show reducing unemployment “is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected.” Unemployment may stand between 7% and 7.5% at the end of 2012, he said.
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
July 8, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
There were a lot of economic reports this week and most of them were disappointing. Consumer confidence fell in June, with sharp declines in regions affected by the Gulf oil spill. The June Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey suggested a moderation in the pace of manufacturing growth (still positive). Unit motor vehicle sales slowed somewhat in June. Pending home sales plunged in May, following the expiration of the homebuyers’ tax credit.
Weekly jobless claims were higher than anticipated. The June Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 125,000, reflecting a 225,000 decline in temporary census workers, in line with expectations. However, private-sector payrolls rose a disappointing 83,000 – softer than expected, but not a disaster. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% (from 9.7% in May and vs. expectations of 9.8%), but the decline was due largely to a decrease in labor force participation. The employment-population ratio fell to 58.5% compared to 58.7% in May and 59.4% a year ago. Average weekly hours edged down, and average hourly earnings slipped 0.1% – both disappointing. [Read more]
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen
June 12, 2010
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Raymond James Investment Services
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were generally soft, consistent with a lackluster-to-moderate pace of economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book noted that “economic activity continued to improve since the last report,” although most Fed districts described the pace of growth as “modest.” Retail sales were much weaker than anticipated, falling by 1.2% in May, down 1.1% excluding autos. Weakness was concentrated in building materials, which could reflect the acceleration in March and April (due to the pending expiration of the homebuyer tax credit). Ex-autos, building materials and gasoline, sales edged up 0.1% following a 0.2% decline in April.
The stock market mood remained negative, with plenty of intraday volatility. However, Chinese export data suggested that the European debt crisis has not had a major impact on foreign trade. Global equity markets improved on that news and short-covering may have exaggerated the impact in the United States. The disappointing retail sales figures dampened the mood again on Friday. [Read more]
