Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 7th, 2014
September 7, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. ISM surveys were stronger than expected. Unit auto sales rocketed to a 17.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the strongest pace since January 2006.
The Fed’s Beige Book, the summary of anecdotal economic information from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, was essentially more of the same (growth described as “modest to moderate”). The August Employment Report was disappointing.
Frazier Allen
Equity markets slide after an eventful month
August 1, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The last week of July has been eventful on a number of fronts. The economic calendar was packed, geopolitical tensions intensified and Argentina teetered on the edge of default, eventually going over. This is the second time the South American country has defaulted on its debt in the past 13 years.
The default may be short-lived if Argentina can reach an agreement to pay its missed $1.5 billion interest payment.
Frazier Allen
Stocks end quarter mixed despite fewer headwinds
April 4, 2014
Clarksville, TN – March marked the fifth anniversary of the stock market’s bull run, since the bottom in the S&P 500 back in 2009. The most recent quarter was more lackluster, as U.S. stock indices were somewhat flat.
The equity markets showed some resilience during the last week of the month after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that “considerable slack” in a “tough” labor market means the central bank will continue its monetary support of the economy for some time.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 9th, 2014
February 9, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The January Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 113,000 (vs. a median forecast of +185,000), following a subpar 75,000 gain in December.
However, seasonal adjustment and weather effects added uncertainty to the results. Details suggest that the weather may not have been much worse than a normal January, but December weather was more unfavorable.
Frazier Allen
Stocks hesitate as expected after a strong rally
February 4, 2014
Clarksville, TN – U.S. stocks had a great run in 2013 with major indices up 27% to 38%, but that momentum lost a bit of steam in January and the first hours of February trading.
The pullback toward the end of January seems to reflect investor concern about turmoil in emerging markets in general, and specifically, about a drop in Argentina’s currency and a deceleration of Chinese manufacturing.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 5th, 2014
January 5, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports of recent weeks contained a few surprises. Consumer spending growth in 3Q13 was stronger than previously estimated, while monthly figures showed acceleration in spending growth in the first two months of 4Q13 (although this is somewhat inconsistent with the pace of income growth).
Right now, inflation-adjusted consumer spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product) appears to be on track for about a 4% annual rate in 4Q13 – impressive, although the current figures may be revised. Durable goods orders rose more than expected in November, with the details suggesting that capital spending plans were delayed due to the government shutdown.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 30th, 2013
December 30, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to be the highlight, although the December figures can be exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment.
Market participants are likely to look ahead to the Employment Report.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 19th, 2013
December 22, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Taper, no tantrum. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion in January. The FOMC added that it expects to further reduce the pace of asset purchases “in measured steps” depending on the economic data (that may mean every other Fed policy meeting in 2014).
It also emphasized that the federal funds target rate would remain in its current low range (0-0.25%) even after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.
Frazier Allen
Fed to taper; Congress passes a Budget
December 20, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Federal Reserve policymakers decided to trim something other than trees at their December meeting.
The central bank made the long-awaited decision to begin reducing its monthly pace of asset purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion, starting in January 2014. This is the first step towards unwinding the economic stimulus.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 15th, 2013
December 15, 2013
Clarksville, TN – House and Senate leaders reached an agreement on a mini budget deal. This isn’t the “grand bargain” that lawmakers were tasked with, but it will prevent a government shutdown in January. That removes a major uncertainty for the markets, but also for Federal Reserve policymakers.
The deal reduces (but does not eliminate) the impact of the sequester cuts to spending that were slated for mid-January. The deal does not address the debt ceiling, which will go back into effect on February 7th, nor does it prevent over 1.2 million from losing extended unemployment benefits at the end of this month.
Frazier Allen
