Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 4th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and did not alter its forward guidance (on short-term interest rates) or the monthly pace of asset purchases.

In the policy statement, the FOMC noted that growth had been “modest” in the first half of the year, that mortgage rates had risen “somewhat,” and that a persistent low trend in inflation could present some risks for the economy. All of which suggests that a tapering in the rate of asset purchases will be delayed. However, investors should still expect some tapering by the end of the year. [Read more]

Markets gain ground, await further Fed guidance

Clarksville, TN – July was certainly eventful in terms of market movements and economic news. Stocks were up for the month, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest monthly gain since January, making up for its decline in June.

All the major indices ended July in higher territory after housing prices posted their largest gain in seven years and the Commerce Department reported that advanced estimates show that gross domestic product grew more than forecast in the second quarter. [Read more]

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 30th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

The economic data reports were mixed. Existing home sales fell slightly in July. New home sales jumped 8.3% (although figures for the two previous months were revised lower and the July increase was not statistically different from zero). A measure of manufacturing activity in China weakened in July, but the same measure for the euro area was about flat.

Next week, no changes are expected from the Federal Open Market Committee, but investors will be sensitive to any changes in the wording of the policy statement. Future Fed policy decisions will be driven by the economic data (or more precisely, the implications that the data will have for the economic outlook). [Read more]

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 24th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

In his monetary policy testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.” He indicated that the Fed is using asset purchases “primarily to increase the near-term momentum of the economy, with the specific goal of achieving a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market.”

The Fed will rely on its forward guidance that short-term interest rates will continue to remain exceptionally low “to help maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation for an extended period after asset purchases end, even as the economic recovery strengthens and unemployment declines toward more normal levels.” [Read more]

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 17th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

The economic data were mixed, but the stock market continued to focus on the good news and ignored the rest. Retail sales rose more than expected in February, but results varied across sectors. Industrial production picked up, following a weak January (results varied by industry).

The inflation reports showed some pressure from higher gasoline, as anticipated, and moderate core inflation. Treasury reported a smaller deficit than a year ago. Initial claims for unemployment benefits continued to trend lower. Consumer sentiment fell in the mid-March assessment, with a sharp decline in expectations (down to a 15-month low).

The Dow Jones Industrials Average continued to new record highs, up 10 sessions in a row. In contrast to the optimism expressed in equities, bond yields have remained relatively low.

Next week, housing figures have some market-moving potential, but February is not a “make or break” month for the sector (weather can have an impact). The March figures will be more important. No surprises are expected from the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday.

Officials have had a public debate about the potential costs and benefits of current policy and the settled view is that the benefits (to the labor market, in particular) outweigh the potential that we may see excessive risk-taking and financial instability. The Fed will release revised projections of growth, unemployment, and inflation. Note that the Fed policy announcements will now be made at 2:00pm. On the last meeting of the quarter, the Fed will also release revised projects at 2:00 p.m. and Bernanke’s press briefings will follow at 2:30pm.

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	14539.14	14329.49	10.95%
NASDAQ	3258.93	3232.09	7.93%
S&P 500	1563.23	1544.26	9.61%
MSCI EAFE	1699.43	1682.67	5.95%
Russell 2000	953.07	934.57	12.21%

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1-year ago
Prime Rate	3.25	3.25
Fed Funds	0.17	0.15
30-year mortgage	3.51	3.92

Currencies

	Last	1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.509	1.567
Dollars per Euro	1.301	1.302
Japanese Yen per Dollar	95.880	83.630
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.023/td>	0.993
Mexican Peso per Dollar	12.465	12.700

Commodities

	Last	1-year ago
Crude Oil	93.03	105.43
Gold	1592.90	1636.25

Bond Rates

	Last	1-month ago
2-year treasury	0.26	0.27
10-year treasury	2.00	2.03
10-year municipal (TEY)	3.31	3.07

Treasury Yield Curve – 03/15/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 03/15/2013

Economic Calendar

March 18th	—	Homebuilder Sentiment (March)
March 19th	—	Building Permits, Housing Starts (February)
March 20th	—	FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing
March 21st	—	Jobless Claims (week ending March 16th) Philadelphia Fed Index (March) Existing Home Sales (February) Leading Economic Indicators (February)
March 26th	—	Durable Goods Orders (February) New Home Sales (February) Consumer Confidence (March)
March 29th	—	Good Friday Holiday (markets closed) Personal Income and Spending (February)
April 5th	—	Employment Report (March)
April 10th	—	FOMC Minutes (March 20th)

Important Disclosures

[320left]Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business February 28th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 3rd, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Italian election results (a government in deadlock) dampened the party mood in equities. Bernanke monetary policy helped sooth fears that the Fed might end its asset purchase program earlier rather than later. Bernanke said that Fed officials “do not see the potential costs of the increased risk-taking in some financial markets as outweighing the benefits of promoting a stronger economic recovery and more-rapid job creation.”

Leaders in Washington failed to reach an agreement to avoid the sequester, but a deal could be reached as part of an agreement to authorize government spending after March 27th (which is when the current Continuing Resolution ends). [Read more]

Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 20th, 2013

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

In his State of the Union Address, President Obama proposed various efforts to boost manufacturing jobs, universal pre-K education and an increase in the minimum wage. However, there’s little chance that any of these proposals will make it to the floor of the House.

The economic data were mixed. Retail sales rose a modest 0.1% in January. Industrial production slipped 0.1%, but figures for November and December were revised higher. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index and the mid-February reading on consumer sentiment surprised to the upside. [Read more]

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