Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 20th, 2014
July 20, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The retail sales and industrial production reports had similar stories – gains in June were disappointing relative to expectations, but figures for April and May were revised higher. These data (which are subject to revision) are consistent with a sharp rebound in economic activity in 2Q14 (following weather–related weakness in 1Q14), but also suggest some loss of momentum heading towards 3Q14.
The Producer Price Index and import price reports showed no appreciable pipeline pressures for inflation.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 15th, 2014
July 15, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar picks back up. Retail sales are likely to be the highlight, boosted by stronger vehicle sales in June. Ex-autos, sales results for April and May were disappointing – so we’ll be on the lookout for a rebound (or possibly some revision to the previous figures).
Industrial production data and residential construction figures have some potential to move the markets – they should point to stronger growth in 2Q14.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 8th, 2014
July 8, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The June Employment Report was stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 288,000 (median forecast: +215,000), with widespread gains across sectors (April and May were revised a net 29,000 higher).
The unemployment fell to 6.1% (from 6.3%), although the employment/population ratio edged up only slightly (to 59.0%, vs. 58.9% in May and 58.7% a year ago – still suggesting plenty of slack in the labor market). Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in June, up 2.0% y/y (the CPI rose 2.1% over the 12 months ending in May).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 19th, 2014
May 19, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Concerns about the economic recovery at home and abroad helped pushed long-term interest rates lower (with the 10-year Treasury yield below 2.5%). Stocks fell broadly.
The economic data were mixed. April retail sales and industrial production disappointed, but there were upward revisions to previous figures. Building permits and housing starts jumped sharply in April, but strength was concentrated in the volatile multi-family sector.
Single-family construction activity improved only modestly. The Consumer Price Index rose in line with expectations, reflecting higher prices of food and gasoline. A jump in airline fares added to the core CPI.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 11th, 2014
May 11, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was stronger than expected, but the details of the report, including comments from supply managers, suggested that growth was not especially strong.
In her congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that “although real GDP growth is currently estimated to have paused in the first quarter of this year, I see that pause as mostly reflecting transitory factors, including the effects of the unusually cold and snowy winter weather,” adding “many recent indicators suggest that a rebound in spending and production is already under way, putting the overall economy on track for solid growth in the current quarter.”
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 4th, 2014
May 4, 2014
Clarksville, TN – There were a lot of economic data reports this week. Most of them were consistent with weather-related restraint in 1Q14 and a rebound in activity into early 2Q14. Real GDP rose at a 0.1% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q14 – while weather was a factor, the GDP growth figure was also trimmed by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory growth.
Personal income and spending figures improved in March, with upward revisions to figures for February. Unit auto sales slowed a little in April, still well above the first quarter average.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 29th, 2014
April 29, 2014
Clarksville, TN – March home sales figures were disappointing and while the numbers are normally choppy, suggested that there may be something more to the slowdown in housing than bad weather (mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, while prices have risen significantly over the last three years).
Next week, it’s a very busy calendar, with fresh figures for April. Consumer confidence is expected to pick up. Real GDP growth is likely to be relatively soft (0.4% to +1.4%), with a weather-related restraint on consumer spending and homebuilding, drags from slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit, and a rebound in government (following the drag from the shutdown in 4Q13).
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 9th, 2014
February 9, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The January Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 113,000 (vs. a median forecast of +185,000), following a subpar 75,000 gain in December.
However, seasonal adjustment and weather effects added uncertainty to the results. Details suggest that the weather may not have been much worse than a normal January, but December weather was more unfavorable.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 3rd, 2014
February 3, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q13, about as expected, but the details were a bit surprising. Consumer spending and business fixed investment, the key components, each rose at a respectable pace.
However, inventory growth, already elevated in 3Q13, rose further (and will likely subtract from GDP growth in 1H14). Net exports (a smaller trade deficit) added. Residential home building and government subtracted. Personal income figures rose meagerly in 4Q13, suggesting that we may see some slowing in spending ahead.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 30th, 2013
December 30, 2013
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to be the highlight, although the December figures can be exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment.
Market participants are likely to look ahead to the Employment Report.
Frazier Allen
