Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 28th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – In her Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen was not expected to provide any significant clues about what will happen at the September 20-21 policy meeting.

Surprise! Yellen provided a strong hint that the central bank is a lot closer to raising short-term interest rates. Yellen said, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” Take that in context with other evidence.

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 21st, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The FOMC minutes (from the July 26th-27th policy meeting) showed that officials were divided on the timing of the next rate hike. Some felt that the labor market had already tightened enough and that the Fed risked generating financial excesses by keeping rates so low for so long.

Others felt that there was plenty of time to wait for more information and that it would be harder to correct course if the Fed moved too rapidly. Among voting FOMC members, the hawkish view (those wanting to raise rates sooner rather than later) appeared to be a minority.

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 14th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic data remained consistent with moderate economic growth and low inflation. Retail sales figures for July disappointed, coming in below expectations (but partly offset by upward revisions to June).

Preliminary productivity figures for the second quarter were weak (averaging a 0.5% annual rate over the last five years). Jobless claims remained very low. The Producer Price Index fell more than expected and pipeline pressures remained mild or slightly deflationary.

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 7th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “on balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.”

More importantly, “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in favor of raising the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (to 0.50% to 0.75%).

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 24th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin and reports were of little consequence for the markets. As expected, the European Central Bank left short-term interest rates unchanged and did not alter its asset purchase plans.

ECB President Draghi indicated that policymakers were encouraged by the financial stability following the initial reaction to the Brexit vote. He also said that more information will become available over time and the ECB would act using all possible tools “if needed.”

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 7th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the break even level in January, with a pickup in new orders and a softening in employment.

The ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index slowed more than anticipated. The January Employment Report seemed to have something for everybody. Nonfarm payrolls rose less than forecast.

However, the unemployment rate edged lower, hours moved higher and average hourly earnings advanced – all likely to catch the attention of Fed policymakers.

[Read more]

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 27th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – Global worries continued, but the U.S. stock market rebounded somewhat after a sharp slide on Wednesday, lending hope to the view that the worst is behind us. Oil prices also improved, but it’s not clear whether the global outlook was helped by higher oil prices or the other way around.

Yields on long-term Treasuries fell on the flight to safety, but that was partly unwound as global worries eased at the end of the week. Investors also took encouragement from European Central Bank President Draghi’s comments that the ECB will review and reconsider its policy outlook in March.

[Read more]