About: Frazier Allen 
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
Web Site: http://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Email:
frazier.allen@raymondjames.com
Frazier Allen's Articles:
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 8th, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were generally better. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices each picked up in December, although levels remained consistent with only moderate economic growth. The December Employment report was moderately strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 (vs. a median forecast of +150,000), but was likely boosted by the seasonal adjustment (unadjusted payrolls fell by 219,000). The two previous months were revised a net 12,000 lower. Private-sector payrolls rose by 212,000. State and local government continued to shed jobs (-14,000), but the pace of decline has been moderating as tax revenues improve.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, from a revised 8.7% in November and 9.4% a year ago. The broader unemployment rate (U-6), which includes discouraged workers and part-time workers who would rather half full-time employment, fell to 15.2%, vs. 15.6% in November and 16.6% a year ago. The employment-population ratio held steady at 58.5%, vs. 58.3% a year ago. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 3rd, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Good news on the home front was offset somewhat by concerns about developments overseas as the broad market finished a volatile year essentially unchanged from where it began.
Consumers were generally upbeat, with the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index for December rising to 64.5, up from a 55.2 reading in November and reaching levels last seen in the spring. That confidence, aided by deep discounting and extended hours from retailers, translated into better than expected holiday sales. A shopping center trade group said revenues rose about 3.8% in November and December from a year ago.
Other domestic indicators also were positive. The Labor Department’s four-week average of unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since June 2008, manufacturing activity in the Midwest remained steady in December after rising sharply in November, and a national index of pending home sales index rose to its highest level in more than 18 months. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 26th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were mixed. Real GDP growth rose at a 1.8% annual rate in 3Q11 (revised down from +2.5% in the advance estimate and +2.0% in the 2nd estimate), with a downward revision to consumer spending growth. Personal income and spending rose modestly in November. Inflation–adjusted consumer spending (70% of GDP) appears to remain on track for a 2.5% to 3.0% annual pace in 4Q11. However, real disposable income was down 0.1% from a year ago. Residential construction and new home sales improved, helped by the seasonal adjustment.
Jobless claims continued to trend at a moderately low level, reflecting fewer-than-normal seasonal layoffs in manufacturing and construction. Existing home sales rose 4.0% in November, but benchmark revisions significantly reduced the level of reported sales back to 2007. Congress finally got around to extending unemployment insurance benefits and the payroll tax reduction, but only for two months. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 6th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Following a horrible Thanksgiving Day holiday week, the stock market was due for a bounce, but the rebound was aided significantly by central bank action and favorable economic data.
The Federal Reserve joined five other central banks in efforts to boost dollar liquidity. The price of dollar swap arrangements between central banks was reduced to 50 basis points over the Overnight Index Swap rate (OIS), vs. 100 bps over OIS previously, and swap lines were extended to February 1st, 2013. This is U.S. dollar liquidity we’re talking about, but as a contingency measure, the central banks agreed to establish temporary liquidity facilities in other currency (euros, perhaps?) “should market conditions warrant.” The move does not go to the heart of Europe’s problems, but does aim to prevent the sort of seizing up that occurred among large global banks during the crisis of three year ago. Meanwhile, ECB president Draghi hinted of more support from the ECB if leaders could agree to a more comprehensive fiscal compact (a restatement of fiscal rules and enforcement of mutual commitments). «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 29th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Recent data show that the U.S. economy is continuing its slow recovery as the Commerce Department revised its estimate of GDP to a 2.0% annual rate, though this was lower than the initial estimate at 2.5%. Both consumer spending and personal incomes increased in October as well, while orders for durable goods fell by 0.7%, a possible indication of tempered demand for U.S. manufactured goods from a slowing global economy.
Concerns about the debt loads of European nations that began with Greece have spread, and investors are now demanding higher yields on the obligations of much larger nations. The higher rates are seen as a sign that investors are questioning the European Union’s ability to restore confidence in its management of the debt crisis and to keep borrowing costs for major European nations from increasing to unsustainable levels. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 18th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data reports were mostly stronger than expected, consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales rose more than the consensus forecast in October. Industrial production picked up, partly reflecting an increase in mining, but automobile production improved. Residential construction numbers were mixed, but suggested a modest uptrend in single-family activity (still at very low levels). As expected, the October inflation reports reflected lower energy prices. Core inflation was mild.
Tensions continued to heat up in Europe, with increased calls for the European Central Bank to step in as the lender of last resort. However, the ECB continues to reject that role. Borrowing costs for Italy, Spain, and France rose, but fell back a bit at the end of the week, as Greece and Italy made some progress in addressing their budget situations. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 14th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Anxieties about Europe intensified as borrowing costs in Italy ramped up, generating worries about the country’s ability to roll over its existing debt. U.S. investors relaxed toward the end of the week on signs that the Italian government was making some progress on austerity efforts. However, a further meltdown in Italy is a huge risk for the euro zone and for the global financial system. Much depends on whether the ECB will signal a more substantial backstop for Italian debt, but that does not seem likely at this point.
The economic data calendar was sparse. The trade deficit was narrower than expected in September, implying (all else equal) an upward revision to the third quarter GDP growth figure (+2.5% in the advance estimate). However, wholesale inventories were much lower than anticipated, implying (all else equal) and downward revision to the GDP estimate. Consumer sentiment improved in the mid-November assessment. Jobless claims moved below the 400,000 level, but the figures are a bit suspect at this time of year due to difficulties in the seasonal adjustment. «Read the rest of this article»
IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2012
IRA contribution limits
Clarksville, TN – The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA in 2012 remains at $5,000 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), unchanged from 2011.
The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains at $1,000. (You can contribute to both a traditional and Roth IRA in 2012, but your total contributions can’t exceed this annual limit.) «Read the rest of this article»
Volatile October Ends Five-Month Down Trend
Clarksville, TN – October was a volatile month in the markets. The beginning of the month saw stocks move higher on mostly upbeat third-quarter earnings reports, eased recession fears and optimism on progress toward resolving the European debt crisis.
Toward the end of the month, U.S. stocks again rallied on news of a Greek debt deal that expanded the region’s bailout fund and on news that U.S. gross domestic product grew faster than in the previous period. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 23rd
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were mixed, but consistent with lackluster-to-moderate growth in the near term (no recession). Headline inflation figures for August were boosted by higher food and energy costs, but the core CPI rose modestly. The 2012 adjustment to Social Security payments will be 3.6%, following no change in the last two years. Housing starts jumped 15% in September, reflecting the usual volatility in the multi-family sector – single-family building permits, the key figure in the report, edged down 0.2%.
The financial markets looked past the economic data, focusing instead on earnings reports and Europe. European leaders said that a plan to address the region’s problems would not be finished by Sunday, but may be completed following a second summit, by Wednesday at the earliest. The global markets have reacted to reports of bickering as the plan is cobbled together, but remains encouraged by the strong rhetoric by Germany’s Merkel and France’s Sarkozy. «Read the rest of this article»
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