![\"Weekly](\"http:\/\/www.clarksvilleonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/weekly-market-snapshot.jpg\" "\\"Weekly")
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Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services<\/p><\/div>\n The economic data were mixed, but remained consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Consumer confidence fell in January. Motor vehicle sales picked up. Home prices were still falling in November. Construction spending improved in December (likely reflecting mild weather). The January Employment Report was stronger than expected, helped by mild weather. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 and the two previous months were revised a net 60,000 higher (note that payrolls fell by 2.689 million in January before seasonal adjustment).<\/p>\n The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, from 8.5% in December and 9.1% a year ago, due largely to a drop in labor force participation. The employment\/population ratio held steady at 58.5%, little changed over the last two years. The Household Survey results noted that 206,000 people were not able to work during the January survey period due to adverse weather, vs. a 425,000 average over the last five Januarys (this figure is not directly comparable to the payroll numbers, but it gives you an idea of the magnitude of the weather impact).<\/p>\n In his testimony to the House Budget Committee, Fed Chairman Bernanke noted that the recovery has been “frustratingly slow”<\/em> and remains vulnerable to shocks. He said “the outlook remains uncertain”<\/em> and needs to be monitored closely. Bernanke said that the federal budget deficit will decrease as the economy recovers and tax revenues rebound. However, even after economic conditions return to normal, “the nation will still face a sizeable structural budget gap.”<\/em> And then, even if discretionary spending were cut to zero, we would still have a deficit. When asked if the Fed\u2019s dual targeting system implied that the Fed would tolerate higher inflation in the short term in order to push unemployment lower, Bernanke said that the Fed will not seek to raise inflation.<\/p>\n Next week, the economic calendar thins out considerably. Bernanke testifies on Tuesday, but this is expected to be a repeat of what he gave the House Budget Committee. The markets typically don\u2019t pay much attention to the monthly trade data, but the December figures have some implications for GDP revisions.<\/p>\n![\"Scott](\"http:\/\/www.clarksvilleonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/scottjbrown-159x200.jpg\" "\\"Scott")
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![\"Treasury](\"http:\/\/www.clarksvilleonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/treasury-curve-020312.gif\" "\\"Treasury")
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