{"id":4174,"date":"2010-10-16T06:00:55","date_gmt":"2010-10-16T11:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/?p=4174"},"modified":"2010-10-16T01:29:27","modified_gmt":"2010-10-16T06:29:27","slug":"the-weekly-market-snapshot-from-frazier-allen-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/2010\/10\/16\/the-weekly-market-snapshot-from-frazier-allen-11\/","title":{"rendered":"The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Scott

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services<\/p><\/div>\n

The minutes of the September 21st meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed some differences of opinion among Fed policymakers, but a general leaning toward further monetary policy accommodation (specifically, additional Fed purchases of long-term Treasury securities). Details of the mechanism and communications strategies had yet to be worked out. In the minutes, Fed officials pointed to the importance of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates and the need to boost inflation expectations from current low levels (an increase in inflation expectations would reduce real short-term interest rates, boosting economic activity). Investors were looking for more details in the Fed chairman’s speech on Friday, but were disappointed by a lack of clarity. Bernanke indicated that “there appears to be a case for further action,” but he implied that that was not a done deal and was conditional on incoming economic data and a weighing of the potential costs and benefits. Still, with the Fed expecting both growth and inflation to trend too low for the foreseeable future, further accommodation seems more likely than not.<\/p>\n

The economic data was mixed. Retail sales rose more than expected in September and figures for August were revised higher. Inventories advanced more than anticipated in August, and some of that accumulation was likely unintended (the result of softer-than-expected demand). The retail sales and inventory data imply an upward revision to economists’ estimates of 3Q10 GDP growth. The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1%, while the core rate (which excludes the food and energy components) was unchanged (up 0.8% y\/y \u2013 further below the Fed’s comfort range).<\/p>\n

Next week, the markets could react to any surprises in the industrial production and residential construction data, but the focus is a couple of weeks ahead (to the November 2 mid-term elections and the November 3 Fed policy decision). The mortgage foreclosure crisis hasn’t received much attention from the markets \u2013 the direct economic impact may be limited (construction activity is already depressed), but there could be some financial sector disruptions in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n

Indices<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\nLast<\/strong><\/td>\nLast Week<\/strong><\/td>\nYTD return %<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DJIA<\/td>\n11094.57<\/td>\n10948.58<\/td>\n6.39%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NASDAQ<\/td>\n2435.38<\/td>\n2383.67<\/td>\n7.33%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P 500<\/td>\n1173.81<\/td>\n1158.06<\/td>\n5.26%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MSCI EAFE<\/td>\n1641.29<\/td>\n1612.09<\/td>\n3.83%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Russell 2000<\/td>\n704.69<\/td>\n684.23<\/td>\n12.68%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Consumer Money Rates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\nLast<\/strong><\/td>\n1-year ago<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Prime Rate<\/td>\n3.25<\/td>\n3.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fed Funds<\/td>\n0.25<\/td>\n0.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30-year mortgage<\/td>\n4.25<\/td>\n5.03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Currencies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\nLast<\/strong><\/td>\n1-year ago<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dollars per British Pound<\/td>\n1.598<\/td>\n1.597<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dollars per Euro<\/td>\n1.405<\/td>\n1.490<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japanese Yen per Dollar<\/td>\n81.450<\/td>\n89.390<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canadian Dollars per Dollar<\/td>\n1.005<\/td>\n1.028<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mexican Peso per Dollar<\/td>\n12.432<\/td>\n13.093<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\nLast<\/strong><\/td>\n1-year ago<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Crude Oil<\/td>\n82.69<\/td>\n75.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold<\/td>\n1374.80<\/td>\n1062.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Bond Rates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\nLast<\/strong><\/td>\n1-month ago<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-year treasury<\/td>\n0.36<\/td>\n3.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10-year treasury<\/td>\n2.55<\/td>\n0.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10-year municipal (TEY)<\/td>\n3.98<\/td>\n3.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Treasury Yield Curve \u2013 10\/15th\/2010<\/h3>\n

\"Treasury<\/p>\n

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) \u2013 10\/15th\/2010<\/h3>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Economic Calendar<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
October 18th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nIndustrial Production (September)
\nHomebuilder Sentiment (October)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 19th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nBuilding Permits, Housing Starts (September)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 20th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nFed Beige Book<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 21st<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nJobless Claims (week ending October 16th)
\nPhiladelphia Fed Index (October)
\nLeading Economic Indicators (October)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 25th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nExisting Home Sales (September)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 26th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nConsumer Confidence (October)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 27th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nDurable Goods Orders (September)
\nNew Home Sales (September)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 29th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nReal GDP (3Q10, Advance estimate)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
November 2nd<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nElection Day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
November 2nd\/3rd<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nFOMC Meeting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Important Disclosures<\/h3>\n

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.<\/p>\n

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.<\/p>\n

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.<\/p>\n

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.<\/p>\n

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business October 14th, 2010.<\/p>\n

\u00a92010 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA<\/a> \/ SIPC<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist The minutes of the September 21st meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed some differences of opinion among Fed policymakers, but a general leaning toward further monetary policy accommodation (specifically, additional Fed purchases of long-term Treasury securities). Details of the mechanism and communications strategies had […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[4066,4067,3059,4068,3695,4069,3060,3061,3062,3063,4071,3064,3065,3066,3697,3698,3067,3068],"class_list":["post-4174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","tag-capacity-utilization","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-economic-data","tag-european-debt","tag-federal-open-market-committee","tag-financial-markets","tag-frazier-allen","tag-global-equity-markets","tag-gross-domestic-product","tag-index-of-leading-economic-indicators","tag-manufacturing-output","tag-raymond-james","tag-raymond-james-investment-services","tag-scott-j-brown","tag-seasonal-adjustment","tag-short-term-interest-rates","tag-volatility","tag-weekly-market-snapshot"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4xGYI-15k","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4174"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4176,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4174\/revisions\/4176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.discoverclarksville.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}