Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM Manufacturing Index should set the tone for the week, but the markets will put a lot of weight on the November jobs data.
Recall that the government shutdown did not have a noticeable impact on the October nonfarm payroll figures (which were stronger than anticipated), but did alter the household survey data (the unemployment rate and the employment/population ratio).
[1]Frazier Allen
The November payroll figure (and possible revisions to September and October) should have some influence on the odds of a Fed taper at the December policy meeting – but there will be other factors (including what happens to long-term interest rates).
Indices
| Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
| DJIA | 16097.33 | 16009.99 | 22.84% |
| NASDAQ | 4044.75 | 3969.155 | 33.95% |
| S&P 500 | 1807.23 | 1795.85 | 26.72% |
| MSCI EAFE | 1877.31 | 1866.28 | 17.04% |
| Russell 2000 | 1141.33 | 1119.62 | 34.38% |
Consumer Money Rates
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Fed Funds | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| 30-year mortgage | 4.38 | 3.32 |
Currencies
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Dollars per British Pound | 1.633 | 1.601 |
| Dollars per Euro | 1.360 | 1.294 |
| Japanese Yen per Dollar | 102.300 | 81.870 |
| Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.058 | 0.993 |
| Mexican Peso per Dollar | 13.074 | 13.003 |
Commodities
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Crude Oil | 92.30 | 87.18 |
| Gold | 1240.71 | 1745.55 |
[320center]
Bond Rates
| Last | 1-month ago | |
| 2-year treasury | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| 10-year treasury | 2.75 | 2.58 |
| 10-year municipal (TEY) | 4.34 | 4.34 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 11/29/2013
[2]S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/29/2013
[3]
Economic Calendar
| December 2nd |
— |
Construction Spending (September, October) ISM Manufacturing Index (November) |
| December 3th |
— |
Motor Vehicle Sales (November) |
| December 4th |
— |
ADP Payroll Estimate (November) Trade Balance (October) New Home Sales (September, October) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November) Fed Beige Book |
| December 5th |
— |
Jobless Claims (week ending November 30th) Real GDP (2nd estimate) |
| December 6th |
— |
Employment Report (November) Personal Income and Spending (October) |
| December 12th |
— |
Retail Sales (November) |
| December 18th |
— |
FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing |
Important Disclosures
[320left]Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
[4]Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 27th, 2013.
©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA [5] / SIPC [6].