Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 17th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – In her nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Janet Yellen took a balanced approach in discussing how she would conduct monetary policy, but the markets took that as “dovish.”

She gave no hint that the pace of asset purchases would be tapered anytime soon, but she also cautioned that the program could not last indefinitely. She noted that the economy is far from fully recovered and indicated that “we have farther to go” in the labor market.

The economic calendar was relatively thin. Industrial production edged down in October, but that partly reflected a pullback in the output of utilities (which was boosted by colder-than-normal temperatures in September).

Manufacturing output rose moderately. The trade deficit widened unexpectedly in September, implying a downward revision to the 3Q13 GDP growth estimate.

Next week, the important stuff bunches up on Wednesday, with the reports on retail sales, the CPI, and existing home sales. That afternoon, the Fed will release the minutes of its policy meeting from late October. The outcome of that meeting was never much in doubt, but that doesn’t mean that there weren’t active policy debates.

Investors will be looking for clues on what the Fed will do in December. Officials are likely to have remained divided on when to begin tapering the pace of asset purchases. They may have also discussed possible changes to the forward guidance (on short-term interest rates), such as whether to lower the unemployment rate threshold (currently 6.5%).

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	15876.22	15593.98	21.15%
NASDAQ	3972.74	3857.33	31.57%
S&P 500	1790.62	1747.15	25.55%
MSCI EAFE	1862.30	1854.72	16.10%
Russell 2000	1111.44	1079.09	30.86%

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1-year ago
Prime Rate	3.25	3.25
Fed Funds	0.10	0.17
30-year mortgage	4.16	3.34

Currencies

	Last	1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.607	1.586
Dollars per Euro	1.347	1.275
Japanese Yen per Dollar	99.920	80.150
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.047	1.003
Mexican Peso per Dollar	12.983	13.231

Commodities

	Last	1-year ago
Crude Oil	93.76	86.32
Gold	1288.24	1729.52

Bond Rates

	Last	1-month ago
2-year treasury	0.29	0.31
10-year treasury	2.71	2.58
10-year municipal (TEY)	4.38	4.40

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/15/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/15/2013

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Economic Calendar

November 18	—	Homebuilder Sentiment (November)
November 19	—	Employment Cost Index (3Q13) Bernanke Speaks (“Communication and Monetary Policy”)
November 20	—	Consumer Price Index (October) Retail Sales (October) Existing Home Sales (October) FOMC Minutes (October 29-30)
November 21	—	Jobless Claims (week ending November 16) Producer Price Index (October) Philly Fed Index (November)
November 25	—	Pending Home Sales Index (October)
November 26	—	Building Permits, Housing Starts (September, October) Consumer Confidence (November)
November 27	—	Durable Goods Orders (October)
November 28	—	Thanksgiving (markets closed)
December 6	—	Employment Report (November)
December 18	—	FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing

Important Disclosures

[320left]Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

^[4]Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 14th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA ^[5] / SIPC ^[6].