Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 2nd, 2016
October 2, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. Consumer confidence rose in September. Durable goods orders were mixed. The estimate of 3Q16 GDP growth was revised higher (to a 1.4% annual rate, held back by a sharp slowing in inventory growth).
Personal income rose modestly in August, as expected, but spending was softer than anticipated, suggesting a possible loss of momentum following a strong spring and early summer (economists’ estimate of GDP growth were revised down for both 3Q16 and 4Q16).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 18th, 2016
September 18, 2016
Clarksville, TN – Fed Governor Lael Brainard, a dove, presented her case for why the central bank should delay an increase in short-term interest rates. While her views are her own (not representative of the Fed as a whole), a more hawkish tilt would have raised the odds of a September rate hike.
The key economic data reports were on the soft side of expectations, but were still consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales disappointed in August. Industrial production unwound a seasonal quirk that boosted July figures. CPI figures surprise slightly to the upside.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 17th, 2015
May 17, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The mid-month economic data disappointed. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in April. Industrial production fell short of expectations. Consumer sentiment slid in the mid-May assessment.
However, weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained remarkably low. The reports on import prices and producer prices continued to show disinflationary pressures.
Real GDP for the euro area rose 0.4% q/q (a 1.7% annual rate) in the flash estimate for the first quarter. Bond yields in Europe moved higher, but seemed to meet some resistance.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 19th, 2015
April 19, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed. Retail sales picked up in March, following a weak trend in the three previous months. Industrial production fell 0.6%, reflecting a plunge in oil and gas drilling and a decrease in the output of utilities (more normal temperatures).
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1%, with mixed results across industries. Building permits and housing starts fell in March, largely reflecting the usual volatility in the multi-family sector. Single-family permits, the key figure in the report, rose 2.1% (up 4.1% y/y).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 22nd, 2015
February 22, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The minutes of the January 27th-28th Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed officials continuing to make preparations for policy normalization.
There was some debate about the risks of moving either too late or too soon. “Several” Fed officials feared that waiting too long to raise rates would risk higher inflation, but “many” (which in Fedspeak, is more than “several”) worried that a premature increase in rates could dampen the economic recovery and leave the Fed with limited options to correct course.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 15th, 2015
February 15, 2015
Clarksville, TN – As expected, U.S. financial market participants kept a close eye on developments in Europe. A fragile ceasefire agreement was reached in Ukraine (but we’ve seen that before). Negotiations to reduce austerity in Greece and restructure the country’s debt broke down without making much progress, but the two sides agreed to try again next week.
Retails sales were softer than expected in January and consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in the mid-February assessment, leading to some concerns about the strength of consumer spending, but also fueling expectations that the Fed will delay its initial increase in short-term interest rates. Unadjusted core retail sales fell 24.9%, the same decline as in January 2014.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 26th, 2015
January 26, 2015
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled that it would begin a quantitative easing program, purchasing €60 billion per month in public and private securities through September 2016.
The amount of monthly purchases was a bit higher than anticipated, but that included the ECB’s already-existing program to purchase asset-backed securities and covered bonds. The ECB’s announcement sent the euro sharply lower.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 20th, 2014
July 20, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The retail sales and industrial production reports had similar stories – gains in June were disappointing relative to expectations, but figures for April and May were revised higher. These data (which are subject to revision) are consistent with a sharp rebound in economic activity in 2Q14 (following weather–related weakness in 1Q14), but also suggest some loss of momentum heading towards 3Q14.
The Producer Price Index and import price reports showed no appreciable pipeline pressures for inflation.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 15th, 2014
July 15, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar picks back up. Retail sales are likely to be the highlight, boosted by stronger vehicle sales in June. Ex-autos, sales results for April and May were disappointing – so we’ll be on the lookout for a rebound (or possibly some revision to the previous figures).
Industrial production data and residential construction figures have some potential to move the markets – they should point to stronger growth in 2Q14.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 8th, 2014
July 8, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The June Employment Report was stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 288,000 (median forecast: +215,000), with widespread gains across sectors (April and May were revised a net 29,000 higher).
The unemployment fell to 6.1% (from 6.3%), although the employment/population ratio edged up only slightly (to 59.0%, vs. 58.9% in May and 58.7% a year ago – still suggesting plenty of slack in the labor market). Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in June, up 2.0% y/y (the CPI rose 2.1% over the 12 months ending in May).
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