Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 2nd, 2016
October 2, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. Consumer confidence rose in September. Durable goods orders were mixed. The estimate of 3Q16 GDP growth was revised higher (to a 1.4% annual rate, held back by a sharp slowing in inventory growth).
Personal income rose modestly in August, as expected, but spending was softer than anticipated, suggesting a possible loss of momentum following a strong spring and early summer (economists’ estimate of GDP growth were revised down for both 3Q16 and 4Q16).
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 18th, 2016
September 18, 2016
Clarksville, TN – Fed Governor Lael Brainard, a dove, presented her case for why the central bank should delay an increase in short-term interest rates. While her views are her own (not representative of the Fed as a whole), a more hawkish tilt would have raised the odds of a September rate hike.
The key economic data reports were on the soft side of expectations, but were still consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales disappointed in August. Industrial production unwound a seasonal quirk that boosted July figures. CPI figures surprise slightly to the upside.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 4th, 2016
September 4, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The August Employment Report was a little light of expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 (median forecast: +180,000), with a net revision to June and July of only -1,000. Private-sector payrolls rose by 126,000 – a +150,000 average over the last six months (vs. +221,000 in 2015 and +240,000 in 2014).
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% (vs. 5.1% a year ago). Average weekly hours fell (and hours for July were revised lower). Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, up 2.4% y/y.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 28th, 2016
August 28, 2016
Clarksville, TN – In her Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen was not expected to provide any significant clues about what will happen at the September 20-21 policy meeting.
Surprise! Yellen provided a strong hint that the central bank is a lot closer to raising short-term interest rates. Yellen said, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” Take that in context with other evidence.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 21st, 2016
August 21, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The FOMC minutes (from the July 26th-27th policy meeting) showed that officials were divided on the timing of the next rate hike. Some felt that the labor market had already tightened enough and that the Fed risked generating financial excesses by keeping rates so low for so long.
Others felt that there was plenty of time to wait for more information and that it would be harder to correct course if the Fed moved too rapidly. Among voting FOMC members, the hawkish view (those wanting to raise rates sooner rather than later) appeared to be a minority.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 14th, 2016
August 14, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data remained consistent with moderate economic growth and low inflation. Retail sales figures for July disappointed, coming in below expectations (but partly offset by upward revisions to June).
Preliminary productivity figures for the second quarter were weak (averaging a 0.5% annual rate over the last five years). Jobless claims remained very low. The Producer Price Index fell more than expected and pipeline pressures remained mild or slightly deflationary.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 22nd, 2015
February 22, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The minutes of the January 27th-28th Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed officials continuing to make preparations for policy normalization.
There was some debate about the risks of moving either too late or too soon. “Several” Fed officials feared that waiting too long to raise rates would risk higher inflation, but “many” (which in Fedspeak, is more than “several”) worried that a premature increase in rates could dampen the economic recovery and leave the Fed with limited options to correct course.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 20th, 2014
July 20, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The retail sales and industrial production reports had similar stories – gains in June were disappointing relative to expectations, but figures for April and May were revised higher. These data (which are subject to revision) are consistent with a sharp rebound in economic activity in 2Q14 (following weather–related weakness in 1Q14), but also suggest some loss of momentum heading towards 3Q14.
The Producer Price Index and import price reports showed no appreciable pipeline pressures for inflation.
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 19th, 2014
May 19, 2014
Clarksville, TN – Concerns about the economic recovery at home and abroad helped pushed long-term interest rates lower (with the 10-year Treasury yield below 2.5%). Stocks fell broadly.
The economic data were mixed. April retail sales and industrial production disappointed, but there were upward revisions to previous figures. Building permits and housing starts jumped sharply in April, but strength was concentrated in the volatile multi-family sector.
Single-family construction activity improved only modestly. The Consumer Price Index rose in line with expectations, reflecting higher prices of food and gasoline. A jump in airline fares added to the core CPI.
Frazier Allen
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 11th, 2014
May 11, 2014
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was stronger than expected, but the details of the report, including comments from supply managers, suggested that growth was not especially strong.
In her congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that “although real GDP growth is currently estimated to have paused in the first quarter of this year, I see that pause as mostly reflecting transitory factors, including the effects of the unusually cold and snowy winter weather,” adding “many recent indicators suggest that a rebound in spending and production is already under way, putting the overall economy on track for solid growth in the current quarter.”
Frazier Allen
