About: Frazier Allen 
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
Web Site: http://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Email:
frazier.allen@raymondjames.com
Frazier Allen's Articles:
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 5th, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were mixed, but remained consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Consumer confidence fell in January. Motor vehicle sales picked up. Home prices were still falling in November. Construction spending improved in December (likely reflecting mild weather). The January Employment Report was stronger than expected, helped by mild weather. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 and the two previous months were revised a net 60,000 higher (note that payrolls fell by 2.689 million in January before seasonal adjustment).
The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, from 8.5% in December and 9.1% a year ago, due largely to a drop in labor force participation. The employment/population ratio held steady at 58.5%, little changed over the last two years. The Household Survey results noted that 206,000 people were not able to work during the January survey period due to adverse weather, vs. a 425,000 average over the last five Januarys (this figure is not directly comparable to the payroll numbers, but it gives you an idea of the magnitude of the weather impact). «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 29th, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and did not embark on another round of asset purchases. No surprise there. However, the FOMC lengthened the period it expects to keep rates exceptionally low: the FOMC “currently anticipates that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014” (vs. the previous “through mid-2013”).
Keeping to its dual mandate (price stability and maximum sustainable employment) the Fed adopted an explicit inflation target (inflation in the PCE Price Index at 2% per year) and a soft target for employment (currently, an unemployment rate between 5.2% and 6.0%). In the post-meeting press briefing, Chairman Bernanke said that officials were still debating whether to increase the Fed’s asset purchases. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 22nd, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The data remained consistent with moderate economic growth in the near term. Industrial production rose 0.4% in December, but was held back by a 2.7% decline in the output of utilities (a function of moderate temperatures) – manufacturing output rose 0.9%, partly reflecting a rebound from a soft November. Residential construction figures were mixed, with an improving trend in single-family housing starts and building permits, but softness in the multi-family sector (which is volatile).
Note that seasonal adjustment may have exaggerated the impact of mild weather. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged for a second consecutive month in December, up 3.0% year-over-year (vs. +1.5% in 2010). Ex-food & energy, the CPI rose 0.1%, up 2.2% in 2011 (vs. a historic low of +0.8% in 2010). «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 15th, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic calendar was thin. Retail sales disappointed in December, rising just 0.1%. However, sales rose 0.3% if one excludes the 1.6% decline in gasoline sales (which reflected lower gasoline prices). In addition, November sales were revised slightly higher. Auto dealership sales advanced 1.5% last month. Sales of building materials rose 1.6%. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gasoline, slipped 0.2%, but still advanced at a somewhat fast pace in 4Q11. Jobless claims rose sharply, but it’s not unusually to see large week-to-week swings this time of year (due to the difficulties in seasonal adjustment).
Expectations for Europe varied, with some concern about the pace of reforms in Greece and rumors of possible downgrades of European sovereign debt. A three-day weekend may have limited the amount of risk-taking in the U.S., weakening share prices. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 8th, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were generally better. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices each picked up in December, although levels remained consistent with only moderate economic growth. The December Employment report was moderately strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 (vs. a median forecast of +150,000), but was likely boosted by the seasonal adjustment (unadjusted payrolls fell by 219,000). The two previous months were revised a net 12,000 lower. Private-sector payrolls rose by 212,000. State and local government continued to shed jobs (-14,000), but the pace of decline has been moderating as tax revenues improve.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, from a revised 8.7% in November and 9.4% a year ago. The broader unemployment rate (U-6), which includes discouraged workers and part-time workers who would rather half full-time employment, fell to 15.2%, vs. 15.6% in November and 16.6% a year ago. The employment-population ratio held steady at 58.5%, vs. 58.3% a year ago. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 3rd, 2012
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Good news on the home front was offset somewhat by concerns about developments overseas as the broad market finished a volatile year essentially unchanged from where it began.
Consumers were generally upbeat, with the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index for December rising to 64.5, up from a 55.2 reading in November and reaching levels last seen in the spring. That confidence, aided by deep discounting and extended hours from retailers, translated into better than expected holiday sales. A shopping center trade group said revenues rose about 3.8% in November and December from a year ago.
Other domestic indicators also were positive. The Labor Department’s four-week average of unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since June 2008, manufacturing activity in the Midwest remained steady in December after rising sharply in November, and a national index of pending home sales index rose to its highest level in more than 18 months. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 26th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data were mixed. Real GDP growth rose at a 1.8% annual rate in 3Q11 (revised down from +2.5% in the advance estimate and +2.0% in the 2nd estimate), with a downward revision to consumer spending growth. Personal income and spending rose modestly in November. Inflation–adjusted consumer spending (70% of GDP) appears to remain on track for a 2.5% to 3.0% annual pace in 4Q11. However, real disposable income was down 0.1% from a year ago. Residential construction and new home sales improved, helped by the seasonal adjustment.
Jobless claims continued to trend at a moderately low level, reflecting fewer-than-normal seasonal layoffs in manufacturing and construction. Existing home sales rose 4.0% in November, but benchmark revisions significantly reduced the level of reported sales back to 2007. Congress finally got around to extending unemployment insurance benefits and the payroll tax reduction, but only for two months. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 6th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Following a horrible Thanksgiving Day holiday week, the stock market was due for a bounce, but the rebound was aided significantly by central bank action and favorable economic data.
The Federal Reserve joined five other central banks in efforts to boost dollar liquidity. The price of dollar swap arrangements between central banks was reduced to 50 basis points over the Overnight Index Swap rate (OIS), vs. 100 bps over OIS previously, and swap lines were extended to February 1st, 2013. This is U.S. dollar liquidity we’re talking about, but as a contingency measure, the central banks agreed to establish temporary liquidity facilities in other currency (euros, perhaps?) “should market conditions warrant.” The move does not go to the heart of Europe’s problems, but does aim to prevent the sort of seizing up that occurred among large global banks during the crisis of three year ago. Meanwhile, ECB president Draghi hinted of more support from the ECB if leaders could agree to a more comprehensive fiscal compact (a restatement of fiscal rules and enforcement of mutual commitments). «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 29th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Recent data show that the U.S. economy is continuing its slow recovery as the Commerce Department revised its estimate of GDP to a 2.0% annual rate, though this was lower than the initial estimate at 2.5%. Both consumer spending and personal incomes increased in October as well, while orders for durable goods fell by 0.7%, a possible indication of tempered demand for U.S. manufactured goods from a slowing global economy.
Concerns about the debt loads of European nations that began with Greece have spread, and investors are now demanding higher yields on the obligations of much larger nations. The higher rates are seen as a sign that investors are questioning the European Union’s ability to restore confidence in its management of the debt crisis and to keep borrowing costs for major European nations from increasing to unsustainable levels. «Read the rest of this article»
The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 18th
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
The economic data reports were mostly stronger than expected, consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales rose more than the consensus forecast in October. Industrial production picked up, partly reflecting an increase in mining, but automobile production improved. Residential construction numbers were mixed, but suggested a modest uptrend in single-family activity (still at very low levels). As expected, the October inflation reports reflected lower energy prices. Core inflation was mild.
Tensions continued to heat up in Europe, with increased calls for the European Central Bank to step in as the lender of last resort. However, the ECB continues to reject that role. Borrowing costs for Italy, Spain, and France rose, but fell back a bit at the end of the week, as Greece and Italy made some progress in addressing their budget situations. «Read the rest of this article»
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