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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 8th, 2013

By | September 8, 2013 | Email This Post Print This Post

F&M Investment Services - Raymond JamesClarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but mostly on the strong side of expectations. The ISM’s two monthly surveys surprised to the upside. Motor vehicle sales advanced

However, the August Employment Report disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 169,000 (vs. a median forecast of +180,000 and expectations of an upside surprise). Figures for June and July were revised a net 74,000 lower (July went from +162,000 to +104,000).

Manufacturing rose by 6,000. Construction was flat. Retail added 44,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%, but that was due to lower labor force participation (the lowest since May 1978).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

The employment / population ratio edged down to 58.6% (vs. 58.7% in July and 58.4% a year ago). Average weekly hours edged back up, possibly reflecting sequester effects in July. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (+2.2% y/y), with average weekly earnings up 0.5% (+2.5% y/y).

Bond yields moved higher amid the stronger pieces of economic information, but fell back on the payroll figures. Higher long-term interest rates have been a restraining factor for the stock market. The August job market figures did not end the debate about whether the Fed will begin to reduce its rate of asset purchases this month (and if so, but how much).

The Fed’s decision is expected to be a close one. However, QE can’t last forever and we ought to see the Fed begin to taper with a small step and a promise to “wait and see” before tapering again.

Next week, the economic calendar is thin until Friday. Following the increase in unit auto sales, retail sales are expected to have risen at a moderately strong pace in August. With a paucity of economic data reports, the financial markets will have other things to focus on (Syria). Congress will be back in session.

Attention is likely to eventually turn to discussions on the budget and debt ceiling. For most market participants, it may be a case of “been there, done that.” Eventually Congress will get its act together to avoid a government shutdown, but the mere prospect of that should be enough to rattle the markets in the next few weeks.


Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 14937.48 14840.95 13.99%
NASDAQ 3658.79 3620.30 21.17%
S&P 500 1655.08 1638.17 16.05%
MSCI EAFE 1733.05 1711.89 8.05%
Russell 2000 1028.69 1026.94 21.11%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.09 0.18
30-year mortgage 3.98 3.71


Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.560 1.591
Dollars per Euro 1.313 1.261
Japanese Yen per Dollar 100.040 78.360
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.050 0.990
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.433 13.108


Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 108.37 95.36
Gold 1372.22 1693.55

Bond Rates

Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.45 0.30
10-year treasury 2.92 2.58
10-year municipal (TEY) 5.02 4.62

Treasury Yield Curve – 09/06/2013

Treasury Yield Curve – 09/06/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 09/06/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 09/06/2013

Economic Calendar

September 12th

Jobless Claims (week ending September 7th)
September 13th

Producer Price Index (August)
Retail Sales (August)
Consumer Sentiment (mid-September)
September 16th

Industrial Production (August)
September 17th

Consumer Price Index (August)
September 18th

FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing
October 4th

Employment Report (September)
October 30th

FOMC Policy Decision, no press briefing

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business August 29th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

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